706 FXUS61 KCLE 220244 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 944 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...Late Evening Near Term Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast across the Midwest on Wednesday, lifting a warm front north across the region. This warm front will become nearly stationary just north of the area Wednesday into Thursday. A secondary low pressure system will then move east along the stationary boundary, pushing a strong cold front east across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build across the region by the end of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 930 pm update... After looking the latest 00z high-res guidance, confidence has increased for the potential of a light wintry and or light freezing rain with the onset of the precipitation that will be spreading over the area by Wednesday morning. The better potential for seeing impacts with this light wintry weather will be over northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania after 6 am. Light to moderate precipitation is expected to develop and spread over the region into the morning hours. At the same time, temperatures will likely still be at or slightly below freezing with the onset of this precip before temps are able to warm up safely above freezing later in the morning. A light coating of light snow, light sleet, and a glaze of light freezing rain will be possible in the highlighted Winter Weather Advisory areas which may impact the morning commute and travel. If the potential increases outside this area, expansion of the advisory maybe needed at a later forecast update. 630 pm update... We made some minor adjustments to the hour POPs forecast between 06z and 12z overnight. The previous forecast seemed just a touch too fast with the onset of precip spreading over the area from southwest to northeast. Otherwise, there were no other changes made to the near term forecast at this time. We will keep an eye on the trends with the latest model guidance that comes in this evening for tomorrow morning's light wintry mix potential. Previous discussion... An active near term period is anticipated across the Lower Great Lakes region with rain, ice, sleet, and snow. For our area, a mainly-rain scenario appears most likely, though model trends will need to continue to be monitored over the next 12 hours. For the rest of today, mixing heights have definitely exceeded expectations, with winds tapping up to as high as 7 to 8,000 feet, compared with the forecast mixing heights of 4 to 4,500 feet. This has contributed to several wind gusts up to 45 mph and even some isolated reports up to 50 mph earlier this afternoon. Thankfully, the winds are expected to quickly diminish over the next few hours as the enhanced mid-level wind field exits east of the region. For tonight into Wednesday, a low pressure system will move northeast across the Midwest and into MI, lifting a warm front north across the area. Ahead and along the warm front, moist, isentropic lift will allow for scattered to widespread rain Wednesday morning and afternoon. Forecast soundings are suggesting a shallow, near-surface cool layer underneath a deeper warm layer aloft, and thus think sleet potential across our area should be kept to a minimum. However, a brief window of freezing rain is possible across NE OH into NW PA early Wednesday morning where the "coolest" antecedent surface temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s will be found ahead of the precipitation. Elsewhere, temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30s, quickly increasing into the 40s by mid- morning. For the Toledo area, brisk, easterly winds off of Lake Erie should moderate temperatures just above freezing, minimizing any freezing rain threat. However, we're still talking a 1 degree or two difference from possible impacts so this area will definitely need to be monitored through the next couple of shifts. On Wednesday night, the first low pressure system will reach NW OH, accompanied by a strong 850 mb jet of 60 to 70 knots, bringing with it a surge of low-level moisture and perhaps some elevated instability to allow for isolated rumbles of thunder. These rumbles of thunder will be accompanied by another round of rain and, depending on the mixing heights, the possibility of southwesterly winds gusting up to 40 mph given 925 mb winds in the 40 to 50 knot range. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... By Thursday morning, the first low pressure will depart to the east, with a east-west oriented warm front draped somewhere across the forecast area (it's uncertain where exactly at this time). This warm front extends from a low located over northern Illinois at 12Z/Thu. Currently expecting this low to move northeast to lower Michigan by Thursday afternoon and then east across southern Ontario and to western/central New York by 00Z/Fri. As this low makes it track, its associated warm front will lift north across the area with some rain showers possibly lingering across the eastern part of the area Thursday morning. It's likely there will be a very strong thermal gradient across this front, with many areas experiencing a 20-30 degree temperature rise from Thursday morning to Thursday afternoon. High temperatures are expected to exceed 60 areawide with a chance for some spots to hit 70! Once again, many climate sites will be close to reaching or exceeding daily record high temperatures. For this reason, we have included a climate section below for Feb 23. Additionally, strong, deep mixing of the boundary layer is expected within the warm sector, which is partially why temperatures are expected to rise so much. Deep mixing of up to 6000 feet may be possible, tapping into the 40+ knot winds that will exist aloft. For this reason, southwest to west gusts of 40-50 mph may be possible Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. It's possible a wind advisory may be needed. A cold front moves east across the area Thursday evening through Thursday night. Winds aloft will be lower behind the front, so expect surface winds to gradually decrease Thursday night as they become west and then northwest by early Friday morning. Light lake effect snow is possible on Friday, mainly for northwest Pennsylvania. At this time, it looks like less than an inch of snow accumulation is expected. A cooler airmass settles in behind this front with temperatures expected to be well below normal with highs in the upper to mid 20s Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure briefly builds across the area Friday night before a weak, moisture-starved upper-level trough moves across the area on Saturday. It's possible we could see an isolated shower but we have PoPs capped at around 10-20% for Saturday. High pressure quickly builds across the area Saturday night into Sunday. Our next low pressure system comes out of the Great Plains region, moving northeast across the Great Lakes region Monday and Monday night, with precipitation type mostly rain. Currently have PoPs of around 70% but could see this going higher as we get closer to it. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions this evening will last through 06z but ceilings will lower by 12z Wednesday morning to MVFR. Conditions will further lower to IFR later Wednesday morning through the afternoon. A warm front will be advancing northward early Wednesday. Light to moderate precip will develop ahead of this warm front. A light wintry mix will be possible on the onset of the precip Wednesday morning with a brief period of light freezing rain/snow eventually changing over to light rain for the rest of the TAF period. Ceilings will eventually lower to 700 to 900 feet late Wednesday morning through the end of the TAF period. Visibility will be between 1sm and 3sm during the precip on Wednesday. Winds will start out west-northwest 10 knots or less this evening. The winds will shift from a east- northeast direction late tonight around 10 to 12 knots and hold through the rest of the TAF period. The warm front will advance through CAK and MFD after 21z with a wind shift from the southeast around 10 knots. Non-convective LLWS may need to be considered in the next TAF issuance, primarily for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday evening into Thursday in rain showers and isolated thunder. Gusty, westerly winds of 40 to 45 mph are possible Thursday afternoon and evening following a strong cold front. Non- VFR possible again in snow showers and/or low ceilings Thursday night into Friday. && .MARINE... Winds will gradually weaken this evening as high pressure builds in, so have allowed the small craft advisory to expire for the western end this evening. The small craft advisory continues for the eastern basin through this evening. A complicated marine forecast is in store this week as a pair of low pressure system move east in vicinity of Lake Erie first Wednesday evening, and again Thursday evening, resulting in several periods of marine headlines this week. First, small craft advisory likely needed for 20-30 easterly winds Wednesday morning with wind direction becoming very uncertain Wednesday night, though the small craft advisory may still be needed. There will be a bit of lull Thursday morning before strengthen with southwesterly flow to 20-25 knots again behind a front Thursday afternoon/evening. A cold front quickly moves east across the lake Thursday evening with winds of 20- 30 knots possible with westerly flow Thursday night. A small craft advisory is likely needed Thursday afternoon through at least late Friday morning. Quieter conditions expected Friday night through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Record-high temperatures are possible on Thursday, Feb 23. Here are the records for climate sites for Feb 23: Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 02-23 68(2017) 68(2017) 68(2017) 69(2017) 69(2017) 65(1922) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ010-011-020-021. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089. PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Saunders CLIMATE...