201 
FXUS62 KJAX 120728
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

...GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE TODAY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Surface low pressure over central GA will continue its trek 
northeastward into the Atlantic waters off the coast of the
Carolinas today as high pressure builds into the northwestern Gulf.
Aloft, a deepening cutoff low will swing through GA and into the 
Carolinas. Wrap- around light showers will taper off later this 
morning as the low lifts away from the region. Gusty westerly 
winds develop in the wake of the low due to the tight local 
gradient between the low and the high. A Wind Advisory will be in 
effect across the area with gusts of 35 to 40 mph expected 
throughout the day. Cooler temperatures today with highs in the 
mid 50s in inland SE GA to mid 60s in north-central FL. Winds will
slowly decrease as the local pressure gradient relaxes through 
the night. Skies will begin to clear out overnight, allowing 
temperatures to fall off. Lows in the upper 30s to around 40 will 
be common inland, with lower 40s closer to the coast. Elevated 
winds overnight will cause wind chill temperatures to drop into 
the low to mid 30s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Monday...High pressure builds SW of the region over the Gulf of 
Mexico and expect Sunny skies and seasonably cool temps into the 
60s with W-NW surface winds at 10-15g20-25mph in the dry air mass 
in place. 

Monday night...Cool with lows in the mid/upper 30s inland and lower 
40s along the Coast under mostly clear skies. As winds drop off 
to near calm by sunrise Tuesday morning and some patchy frost can 
be expected over inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of 
Jacksonville.

Tuesday...High pressure crosses the FL Peninsula and moves into the 
Atlantic and the warm-up begins with highs rebounding back into 
the lower/middle 70s inland and 60s along the coast in the onshore
E-SE surface flow.

Tuesday Night...High pressure builds further offshore into the
Western Atlantic and the southerly flow at the surface will lead
to milder overnight lows in the mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along
the coast. Winds light enough to allow for patchy fog towards
sunrise Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Wednesday...Next frontal boundary approaches from the NW, but is 
expected to stall across the SE US just far enough to keep dry 
conditions over NE FL/SE GA with highs well into the 70s area-wide 
and even some lower 80s across inland NE FL.

Thursday/Friday...Models in better agreement with keep frontal 
boundary just NW of the region on Thursday with near record warmth 
in the lower 80s for SE GA and middle 80s for NE FL, then 
tracking it through SE GA Thursday Night and through NE FL on 
Friday with scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms, but
lesser rainfall amounts expected than the current weather system 
impacting the region. Mild temps to start the day Friday and could
still see widespread temps in the 70s across NE FL depending on 
the timing of the frontal passage, but expect temps slowly falling
through the late afternoon on Friday with lows returning to below
normal levels on Friday Night in the mid/upper 30s SE GA and 
lower 40s for NE FL.

Saturday...Long range models actually in good agreement for high
pressure building north of the region and breezy Northeast winds
developing and below normal high temps of around 60 degrees across
SE GA and lower/middle 60s for NE FL under partly to mostly sunny
skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Waves of isolated light showers will move through the TAF sites
before ending by 15Z. Gusty west-southwest winds develop tonight as
a cold front moves through the area with winds of 15G20-30kt 
expected for much of the period. Winds diminish after sunset. 
Gusty winds will lift ceilings to MVFR/VFR today. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

A low pressure system will move into the Carolina waters today as
high pressure builds in from the west. Strong sustained westerly winds
with gale force wind gusts are expected at times through this 
evening for the coastal waters. Winds and seas diminish tonight 
into Monday as the local pressure gradient relaxes. The high will 
build over the Gulf on Monday, then overhead Monday night. The 
high will be to the east of the region Tuesday through Thursday, 
with a cold front moving southeast into area late in the week.

Rip Current Risk: Strong offshore winds will lower the rip current risk
at area beaches with a moderate risk today and low risk on Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  38  65  37 /  20   0   0   0 
SSI  61  42  64  44 /  30   0   0   0 
JAX  62  40  69  39 /  30   0   0   0 
SGJ  66  43  67  44 /  30   0   0   0 
GNV  63  40  68  39 /  30   0   0   0 
OCF  65  41  68  39 /  30   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening 
     for FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-
     133-228>138-140-222-225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425.

GA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening 
     for GAZ132>228-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EST this evening 
     for AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for 
     AMZ470-472-474.

     Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 10 PM EST this 
     evening for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$