201 FXUS62 KJAX 120728 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 ...GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE TODAY... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 Surface low pressure over central GA will continue its trek northeastward into the Atlantic waters off the coast of the Carolinas today as high pressure builds into the northwestern Gulf. Aloft, a deepening cutoff low will swing through GA and into the Carolinas. Wrap- around light showers will taper off later this morning as the low lifts away from the region. Gusty westerly winds develop in the wake of the low due to the tight local gradient between the low and the high. A Wind Advisory will be in effect across the area with gusts of 35 to 40 mph expected throughout the day. Cooler temperatures today with highs in the mid 50s in inland SE GA to mid 60s in north-central FL. Winds will slowly decrease as the local pressure gradient relaxes through the night. Skies will begin to clear out overnight, allowing temperatures to fall off. Lows in the upper 30s to around 40 will be common inland, with lower 40s closer to the coast. Elevated winds overnight will cause wind chill temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 Monday...High pressure builds SW of the region over the Gulf of Mexico and expect Sunny skies and seasonably cool temps into the 60s with W-NW surface winds at 10-15g20-25mph in the dry air mass in place. Monday night...Cool with lows in the mid/upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the Coast under mostly clear skies. As winds drop off to near calm by sunrise Tuesday morning and some patchy frost can be expected over inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of Jacksonville. Tuesday...High pressure crosses the FL Peninsula and moves into the Atlantic and the warm-up begins with highs rebounding back into the lower/middle 70s inland and 60s along the coast in the onshore E-SE surface flow. Tuesday Night...High pressure builds further offshore into the Western Atlantic and the southerly flow at the surface will lead to milder overnight lows in the mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast. Winds light enough to allow for patchy fog towards sunrise Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 Wednesday...Next frontal boundary approaches from the NW, but is expected to stall across the SE US just far enough to keep dry conditions over NE FL/SE GA with highs well into the 70s area-wide and even some lower 80s across inland NE FL. Thursday/Friday...Models in better agreement with keep frontal boundary just NW of the region on Thursday with near record warmth in the lower 80s for SE GA and middle 80s for NE FL, then tracking it through SE GA Thursday Night and through NE FL on Friday with scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms, but lesser rainfall amounts expected than the current weather system impacting the region. Mild temps to start the day Friday and could still see widespread temps in the 70s across NE FL depending on the timing of the frontal passage, but expect temps slowly falling through the late afternoon on Friday with lows returning to below normal levels on Friday Night in the mid/upper 30s SE GA and lower 40s for NE FL. Saturday...Long range models actually in good agreement for high pressure building north of the region and breezy Northeast winds developing and below normal high temps of around 60 degrees across SE GA and lower/middle 60s for NE FL under partly to mostly sunny skies. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 Waves of isolated light showers will move through the TAF sites before ending by 15Z. Gusty west-southwest winds develop tonight as a cold front moves through the area with winds of 15G20-30kt expected for much of the period. Winds diminish after sunset. Gusty winds will lift ceilings to MVFR/VFR today. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023 A low pressure system will move into the Carolina waters today as high pressure builds in from the west. Strong sustained westerly winds with gale force wind gusts are expected at times through this evening for the coastal waters. Winds and seas diminish tonight into Monday as the local pressure gradient relaxes. The high will build over the Gulf on Monday, then overhead Monday night. The high will be to the east of the region Tuesday through Thursday, with a cold front moving southeast into area late in the week. Rip Current Risk: Strong offshore winds will lower the rip current risk at area beaches with a moderate risk today and low risk on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 56 38 65 37 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 61 42 64 44 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 62 40 69 39 / 30 0 0 0 SGJ 66 43 67 44 / 30 0 0 0 GNV 63 40 68 39 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 65 41 68 39 / 30 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132- 133-228>138-140-222-225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425. GA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ132>228-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452- 454. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ470-472-474. Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472-474. && $$