913 
FXUS63 KFGF 290400
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Skies are still clear across our north with only higher clouds
across our south. I made some adjustments to reflect these trends.
Winds have stayed up just enough to limit cooling to some degree,
but are high enough to result in wind chills in the -25 to -43 
range. As winds decrease more temperatures should drop to around
-20, so ultimately wind chills will remain in advisory and warning
 ranges as reflected by ongoing hazards tonight. No changes 
 planned at this point. 

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Skies have remained mainly clear with light westerly winds 
persisting. Despite the winds, we are still decoupling and 
temperatures are falling into the teens below, with wind chills 
well within advisory range (-25 to -35). Surface ridging should 
allow for winds to continue to drop (similar lows as earlier this 
morning only slightly more wind). No changes are planned at this 
point for ongoing Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings as they still 
match forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Today's primary impacts will be dangerously cold wind chill values. 
This risk is expected to continue through the overnight period, 
through Sunday, then into Monday morning. Air temperatures are 
expected to fall to near 20 below zero, with wind chill values of 30 
to 35 below zero for areas south of Hwy 200. Areas to the north and 
west will see colder wind chill values in the 40 below to 45 below 
zero range tonight into Sunday morning.

Temperatures only rebound slightly heading into Sunday, with highs 
generally in the single digits below zero. A weak surge of Arctic 
air fills into the region late Sunday evening, driving the overnight 
low temperatures down once more into the 20s below zero. Winds will 
be out of the northwest to west at 15 to 20 mph with gusts upwards 
of 25 mph. This will bring wind chills into the 40 below to 50 below 
zero range across much of the Red River Valley, Devils Lake Basin, 
and parts of northwestern Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Overview: Cold temperatures and hazardous wind chills continue to be 
the focus of the long term period. Wednesday looks to be the next 
possible chance of a light dusting near the northern border but 
confidence remains low.

Discussion: 
The low over the Hudson Bay will continue to hold its a position
for much of the period. While there are some ensembles means
suggesting we break the zero degree threshold after Monday most of
the guidance suggest we will remain in the negatives until
Wednesday. Wind chills advisories may be in effect until Wednesday
as well as the winds gust up to 15-20 mph. Wednesday, there is a
small shortwave that moves through the region bringing along some
warm air advection. With this rising motion over the valley and
near the lake of the woods some clouds are certainly possible.
However we are still relatively dry and insufficient moisture plus
the lack of residency time makes it more likely no measurable
precipitation will fall. Flurries are still a possibility however
brief they may be. By Friday afternoon into next weekend there is
indication that the Hudson Bay low shifts east and weakening in
response to ridging forming over the western US. The models and
ensembles are in disagreement with distinct variations in how
amplified that ridge becomes and how quickly the upper low moves
over the northern Atlantic. The break down and shifting of the
Hudson Low will allow some form of either zonal or split-flow to
form over the Northern Plains and eventually warm back up into the
teens or twenties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and much of
northwest MN through the TAf period. Some guidance is indicating
that MVFR ceilings will develop Sunday afternoon in west central
MN towards KBJI, but the pattern doesn't appear to support this
and I'm skeptical of the timing in relation to traditional diurnal
trends. Light westerly winds 5-10kt should decrease as surface 
high pressure dominates the pattern this evening. There are 
indications that winds may increase to the 10-13kt range from the 
west during the day Sunday as a secondary cold front moves through
the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for NDZ039-049-052-053.

     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for 
     NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for MNZ001-004>009-013-
     014.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ002-003-015>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for 
     MNZ002-003-015>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...DJR