913 FXUS63 KFGF 290400 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1000 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Skies are still clear across our north with only higher clouds across our south. I made some adjustments to reflect these trends. Winds have stayed up just enough to limit cooling to some degree, but are high enough to result in wind chills in the -25 to -43 range. As winds decrease more temperatures should drop to around -20, so ultimately wind chills will remain in advisory and warning ranges as reflected by ongoing hazards tonight. No changes planned at this point. UPDATE Issued at 745 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Skies have remained mainly clear with light westerly winds persisting. Despite the winds, we are still decoupling and temperatures are falling into the teens below, with wind chills well within advisory range (-25 to -35). Surface ridging should allow for winds to continue to drop (similar lows as earlier this morning only slightly more wind). No changes are planned at this point for ongoing Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings as they still match forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Today's primary impacts will be dangerously cold wind chill values. This risk is expected to continue through the overnight period, through Sunday, then into Monday morning. Air temperatures are expected to fall to near 20 below zero, with wind chill values of 30 to 35 below zero for areas south of Hwy 200. Areas to the north and west will see colder wind chill values in the 40 below to 45 below zero range tonight into Sunday morning. Temperatures only rebound slightly heading into Sunday, with highs generally in the single digits below zero. A weak surge of Arctic air fills into the region late Sunday evening, driving the overnight low temperatures down once more into the 20s below zero. Winds will be out of the northwest to west at 15 to 20 mph with gusts upwards of 25 mph. This will bring wind chills into the 40 below to 50 below zero range across much of the Red River Valley, Devils Lake Basin, and parts of northwestern Minnesota. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Overview: Cold temperatures and hazardous wind chills continue to be the focus of the long term period. Wednesday looks to be the next possible chance of a light dusting near the northern border but confidence remains low. Discussion: The low over the Hudson Bay will continue to hold its a position for much of the period. While there are some ensembles means suggesting we break the zero degree threshold after Monday most of the guidance suggest we will remain in the negatives until Wednesday. Wind chills advisories may be in effect until Wednesday as well as the winds gust up to 15-20 mph. Wednesday, there is a small shortwave that moves through the region bringing along some warm air advection. With this rising motion over the valley and near the lake of the woods some clouds are certainly possible. However we are still relatively dry and insufficient moisture plus the lack of residency time makes it more likely no measurable precipitation will fall. Flurries are still a possibility however brief they may be. By Friday afternoon into next weekend there is indication that the Hudson Bay low shifts east and weakening in response to ridging forming over the western US. The models and ensembles are in disagreement with distinct variations in how amplified that ridge becomes and how quickly the upper low moves over the northern Atlantic. The break down and shifting of the Hudson Low will allow some form of either zonal or split-flow to form over the Northern Plains and eventually warm back up into the teens or twenties. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and much of northwest MN through the TAf period. Some guidance is indicating that MVFR ceilings will develop Sunday afternoon in west central MN towards KBJI, but the pattern doesn't appear to support this and I'm skeptical of the timing in relation to traditional diurnal trends. Light westerly winds 5-10kt should decrease as surface high pressure dominates the pattern this evening. There are indications that winds may increase to the 10-13kt range from the west during the day Sunday as a secondary cold front moves through the region. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-054. Wind Chill Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for NDZ039-049-052-053. Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for NDZ039-049-052-053. MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for MNZ001-004>009-013- 014. Wind Chill Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MNZ002-003-015>017- 022>024-027>032-040. Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for MNZ002-003-015>017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...Lynch LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...DJR