139 
FXUS63 KBIS 071816
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1216 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Stratus continues to erode away in the south central to southeast.
Pockets of it may linger through much of the afternoon, but should
expect this trend to continue today. Clear skies with a light
breeze today across the rest of the state. 

UPDATE Issued at 908 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Stratus deck in south central to south east is gradually eroding
this morning. With this update we trimmed up sky grids to match
trends, but continued some sky cover through the afternoon in the
southeast where some areas of stratus may linger. No other changes
needed with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Little needing updating this morning. Lingering low clouds are
starting to break up in some areas, while lingering elsewhere 
mainly in the southeast. Under these low clouds are some patchy 
fog and flurries. Still, reports of dense fog are isolated, thus 
no highlight is needed at this time. Have trimmed patchy fog 
mention somewhat, yet lingered it in the southeast through the 
morning and portions of the day. Also added in some flurries for 
the next few hours in areas of low clouds. Otherwise the forecast 
remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Low clouds continue to linger across central and eastern portions as
a surface high slowly makes its way out of the area this morning.
Further away from the influence of this high, dry southwest flow 
has brought clearing skies and improved surface conditions. 
Overall only seeing patchy reports of fog this morning, thus have 
lowered the coverage of fog in the forecast. The general forecast 
today will see improving conditions as this high pulls away and a 
weak disturbance brings mainly dry southwest flow. Except for some
areas still close to the highs influence in the southeast, clear 
to partly cloudy skies and mainly dry conditions are expected. 
Areas in the southeast could see low clouds and perhaps some 
patchy fog through much of the day. As mentioned a mainly dry 
forecast is expected. Some flurries may fall out of any low clouds
this morning. When the mentioned disturbance moves through today,
perhaps a few flurries are possible, although this has not been 
noticed upstream in MT and Canada. The southwest flow should also 
bring warmer temperatures today, in the 20s and 30s.

Tonight, ridge develops overhead bringing dry and mild conditions.
There looks to be a light westerly flow at the surface, yet this
may not be enough to overcome the return of fog tonight. With 
these inhibitors, confidence was only high enough to place patchy 
fog in for most areas tonight. Look for overnight lows generally 
in the teens tonight. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Overall in the long term look for dry and seasonal conditions 
through at least mid week, with a large ridge developing late in 
the week. Look for limited chances for precipitation as well.

Sunday through mid week the flow aloft is that of a ridge that
tries to build, but breaks down into zonal flow at times. The
result for us is mainly dry conditions and temperatures near
seasonal with slight swings up and down at times. Overall look for
highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens. At the moment
there doesn't appear to be any strong surface high across the area
to start the long term, which may limit the fog potential. That 
being said, with abundant snow cover and warming temperatures any 
nights with clear skies and light winds could see at least patchy 
fog.

Sometime late in the week an amplified ridge may set up across the
inner mountain west into the central US. There could be a quick
moving trough ahead of this mid week. This could bring our next
chances for precipitation across the region, and some slightly
cooler temperatures. Looking at the clusters, this wave may dig a
touch too far south to bring any impactful weather to our area. 
NBM keeps a mainly dry forecast for the time being in the long 
term, and see no reason to go against that for now. It is then 
curious to note the clusters picking up on a strong ridge after 
this quick disturbance late in the week. This may even bring a 
thermal ridge peaking across ND during this time period. With 
abundant snow cover still expected on the ground, this could play 
out similar to last months warm temperatures aloft that struggled 
to mix down. Spreads on the NBM are still high to end the week. 
Will have to monitor how this plays out, yet an overall trend of 
seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures may continue for 
the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

IFR to LIFR stratus will continue to erode this afternoon, with
all TAF sites expected to remain VFR during the daytime hours.
Patchy fog may develop again tonight, more likely after 03Z and in
low lying areas. Best opportunity for fog looks to be along and
east/north of the Missouri River, more likely at KXWA-KBIS. That
said, coverage still looks spotty and uncertain at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...AE