139 FXUS63 KBIS 071816 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1216 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Stratus continues to erode away in the south central to southeast. Pockets of it may linger through much of the afternoon, but should expect this trend to continue today. Clear skies with a light breeze today across the rest of the state. UPDATE Issued at 908 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Stratus deck in south central to south east is gradually eroding this morning. With this update we trimmed up sky grids to match trends, but continued some sky cover through the afternoon in the southeast where some areas of stratus may linger. No other changes needed with this update. UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Little needing updating this morning. Lingering low clouds are starting to break up in some areas, while lingering elsewhere mainly in the southeast. Under these low clouds are some patchy fog and flurries. Still, reports of dense fog are isolated, thus no highlight is needed at this time. Have trimmed patchy fog mention somewhat, yet lingered it in the southeast through the morning and portions of the day. Also added in some flurries for the next few hours in areas of low clouds. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Low clouds continue to linger across central and eastern portions as a surface high slowly makes its way out of the area this morning. Further away from the influence of this high, dry southwest flow has brought clearing skies and improved surface conditions. Overall only seeing patchy reports of fog this morning, thus have lowered the coverage of fog in the forecast. The general forecast today will see improving conditions as this high pulls away and a weak disturbance brings mainly dry southwest flow. Except for some areas still close to the highs influence in the southeast, clear to partly cloudy skies and mainly dry conditions are expected. Areas in the southeast could see low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog through much of the day. As mentioned a mainly dry forecast is expected. Some flurries may fall out of any low clouds this morning. When the mentioned disturbance moves through today, perhaps a few flurries are possible, although this has not been noticed upstream in MT and Canada. The southwest flow should also bring warmer temperatures today, in the 20s and 30s. Tonight, ridge develops overhead bringing dry and mild conditions. There looks to be a light westerly flow at the surface, yet this may not be enough to overcome the return of fog tonight. With these inhibitors, confidence was only high enough to place patchy fog in for most areas tonight. Look for overnight lows generally in the teens tonight. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Overall in the long term look for dry and seasonal conditions through at least mid week, with a large ridge developing late in the week. Look for limited chances for precipitation as well. Sunday through mid week the flow aloft is that of a ridge that tries to build, but breaks down into zonal flow at times. The result for us is mainly dry conditions and temperatures near seasonal with slight swings up and down at times. Overall look for highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens. At the moment there doesn't appear to be any strong surface high across the area to start the long term, which may limit the fog potential. That being said, with abundant snow cover and warming temperatures any nights with clear skies and light winds could see at least patchy fog. Sometime late in the week an amplified ridge may set up across the inner mountain west into the central US. There could be a quick moving trough ahead of this mid week. This could bring our next chances for precipitation across the region, and some slightly cooler temperatures. Looking at the clusters, this wave may dig a touch too far south to bring any impactful weather to our area. NBM keeps a mainly dry forecast for the time being in the long term, and see no reason to go against that for now. It is then curious to note the clusters picking up on a strong ridge after this quick disturbance late in the week. This may even bring a thermal ridge peaking across ND during this time period. With abundant snow cover still expected on the ground, this could play out similar to last months warm temperatures aloft that struggled to mix down. Spreads on the NBM are still high to end the week. Will have to monitor how this plays out, yet an overall trend of seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures may continue for the upcoming week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 IFR to LIFR stratus will continue to erode this afternoon, with all TAF sites expected to remain VFR during the daytime hours. Patchy fog may develop again tonight, more likely after 03Z and in low lying areas. Best opportunity for fog looks to be along and east/north of the Missouri River, more likely at KXWA-KBIS. That said, coverage still looks spotty and uncertain at this time. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...Anglin LONG TERM...Anglin AVIATION...AE