044 
FXUS65 KABQ 120920
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
220 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022

Low clouds and patchy fog have returned over southeastern and east
central New Mexico this morning, and these will be slow to erode
away by the afternoon. A vigorous low pressure system continues to 
approach New Mexico and will cross northern parts of the state
today into early Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a 
fast-moving Pacific cold front that will not only bring colder 
temperatures, but it will also spread snow over western and 
central New Mexico today with snow gradually decreasing and 
dwindling as the front makes it into eastern parts of the state
this evening. Strong winds will also develop today and again on
Tuesday as the low pressure system moves through. Wind speeds today
will be highest from the south central mountains and highlands 
into the northeast highlands where gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be 
possible. On Tuesday the strongest winds will focus over the 
central mountain chain into the east central plains where gusts of
45 to 55 mph will develop. Conditions will still remain breezy to
windy into Wednesday, and temperatures will stay chilly and below
average through the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022

Similar to yesterday morning, abundant low-level moisture has 
produced a deck of low clouds and patchy mist/fog across 
southeastern NM stretching northward toward I-40 from Santa Rosa to 
the TX border. A Dense Fog Advisory is currently out and persistent 
breezy conditions at ground level is so far inhibiting the wider 
development of fog. So will continue to monitor the need for this 
advisory and an early cancellation may be warranted. Otherwise, 
strengthening southwest flow is moving into western NM ahead of a 
potent winter storm system rolling over CA/NV this morning. This 
storm system is defined by two clear vorticity centers, one over 
northern ID and the other just south of San Francisco this hour. 
This latter center is slated to eject eastward accompanied by a 
strong 50-60kt H7 jetmax over southern NM today. Prefrontal mixing 
aided by a deepening surface low along the Front Range in eastern CO 
looks to support the current mix of High Wind Warnings and Wind 
Advisories along the the Central Mountain Chain and adjacent 
highlands. Brief wind advisory conditions could reach further east 
into Quay and Union Counties late today, but the coverage and 
duration was too low to warrant an expansion of wind advisories at 
this time. Strong crosswinds on east-to-west oriented highways like 
I-40 is the main concern today across eastern NM. Winds will 
abruptly turn westerly with the Pacific front pushing west to east 
across the state. Westerly winds along the Sangre de Cristo 
Mountains look to strengthen considerably overnight as the lobe of 
upper level energy undergoes cyclogenesis over eastern CO and 
northwestern KS, deepening to a 527dm H5 low over NE Tuesday 
afternoon. Aided by a sharpening surface pressure gradient, these 
strong westerly winds look to expand to much of the northeastern and 
east-central plains by Tuesday afternoon. Another round of wind 
highlights looks likely. 

Winter weather currently over central AZ will enter western NM near 
sunrise this morning, pushing to the Continental Divide by mid-
morning, and the Rio Grande Valley by the early afternoon, and the 
western slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near mid-afternoon. 
Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will favor western slopes of the 
western and northern high terrain where orographic forcing will be 
strongest. Locally higher amounts up to a foot will favor the high 
peaks of the Tusas and White Water Baldy in the Gila NF. Downsloping 
east of the Continental Divide will limit snow potential into the 
Rio Grande Valley, and eliminate it entirely east of the Central 
Mountain Chain. The upper Rio Grande Valley near Taos could be the 
exception here during the afternoon when the cold front pushes 
through. The downsloping component looks to be less of a factor 
given the terrain orientation, and this area is closer to the better 
upper level dynamics and uplift. A short period of moderate to heavy 
blowing snow producing snow squalls, lower visibility, and hazardous 
travel conditions is also possible with the fropa through western 
NM. Snow will likely end fairly quickly behind the cold front, 
through western NM by sunset, and slowly tapering off through the 
Central Mountain Chain tonight. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022

Into Tuesday night, the upper low will eject farther
northeastward into Nebraska with a still strong flow aloft over NM
that will be veering more northwesterly. The boundary layer and 
mid levels would stabilize overnight, and no mentionable 
precipitation is expected Tuesday night or into Wednesday. A 
surface low will redevelop to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos 
Wednesday afternoon, and a healthy pressure gradient will keep 
breezy to windy conditions going. The central to south central 
mountains and highlands may need yet another Wind Advisory for 
Wednesday afternoon if speed trends hold.

The low will wobble into the upper MS valley by Thursday with a
fairly strong northwesterly flow aloft persisting over NM. Current
wind speeds in the Thursday forecast may need to be nudged upward
if the gradient stays or strengthens more that what is currently
advertised. Prior to last evening's model runs, a lack of 
continuity had kept low confidence for this time frame, and it 
will take another couple of runs to iron out these doubts.

The Friday and weekend period have much uncertainty due to the
aforementioned inconsistencies, and with the remnants of our
Pacific low finally migrating to the Great Lakes and New England
area, it appears an appearance from the polar vortex could follow.
This sharp amplification to the wave pattern and extreme 
baroclinicity will give models fits for a few more runs. For now, 
NM is expected to stay mostly dry through Friday with low chance 
POPs retained in the forecast for this weekend due to the inland 
movement of a separate Pacific shortwave trough. Temperatures will
remain below average amid the periodic meridional component to 
the flow and associated cold air intrusions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2022

A large upper level low will bring several aviation hazards to NM
over the next 18-24 hours. Low clouds and areas of fog have
already developed across southeast and east central NM. KROW is
already being impacted and it's likely that KTCC will be impacted
with at least MVFR to IFR cigs within the next few hours. These 
low clouds/fog are expected to erode between 16-18Z Mon. Starting 
around 14-15Z, a Pacific front will push into western NM before
racing from west to east across the state through the afternoon. 
Along and behind the front, winds will pick up and turn more 
southwesterly, and eventually westerly. Gusts between 25 and 45kts
are likely across western NM, increasing to between 35 and 50 kts
along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. The strongest gusts
are likely with the frontal passage. Additionally, snow will 
develop along and behind the front. Snow will be most common along
and west of the Central Mountain Chain, particularly in the 
higher elevations where mt obscurations will be likely. Blowing 
snow and reduced visibility will also be common. MVFR to IFR 
conditions will be likely at KGUP, and potentially KFMN, in the
morning with lesser confidence at central TAF sites during the
afternoon. Precipitation will likely diminish before reaching 
eastern NM. Wind speeds and snow will slowly decrease Monday 
evening. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022

Strong southwest winds will enter NM today, focusing along the 
Central Mountain Chain and adjacent highlands into the eastern 
plains. A potent upper level trough to the west will also bring a 
bout of winter weather west to east across NM today. Snow 
accumulations will focus on west facing slopes of western and 
northern NM. Southwest winds quickly turn westerly with the Pacific 
cold front today, entering western NM this morning, reaching the Rio 
Grande Valley near mid-day and pushing through eastern NM by the end 
of the day. Strong westerly winds look to remain along the Sangre de 
Cristo Mountains tonight, spreading across eastern NM again through 
the day Tuesday. As winds lessen midweek, much colder air settles 
into the state. Well below normal temperatures persist as a series 
of backdoor cold fronts and northerly flow aloft bring reinforcing 
bouts of colder air into the weekend. Ventilation will be mostly 
poor each day as a result.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  19  33  16 /  90  10   5   5 
Dulce...........................  35   9  27   4 / 100  50  20  10 
Cuba............................  37  17  28  14 /  90  20  10  20 
Gallup..........................  33  17  30   9 / 100  20  10  10 
El Morro........................  34  16  26  10 /  90  20  20  20 
Grants..........................  38  17  31  11 /  80  10  10  10 
Quemado.........................  36  17  29  11 /  90  30  20  20 
Magdalena.......................  44  21  33  18 /  50  20  10   5 
Datil...........................  37  17  29  14 /  80  30  20  10 
Reserve.........................  36  19  34   7 /  90  40  30  10 
Glenwood........................  39  24  34  16 / 100  50  30  10 
Chama...........................  33   5  20   2 /  90  60  20  20 
Los Alamos......................  39  18  29  16 /  80  30  10  10 
Pecos...........................  41  16  29  15 /  70  40   5  10 
Cerro/Questa....................  37   9  24   7 /  60  40   5  10 
Red River.......................  30   5  17   1 /  70  60   5  10 
Angel Fire......................  37  10  21   4 /  60  60  10  20 
Taos............................  39  11  29   7 /  70  40   5  10 
Mora............................  42  16  28  12 /  50  40   5  10 
Espanola........................  45  20  36  16 /  80  30   5   5 
Santa Fe........................  41  17  30  16 /  70  40  10  10 
Santa Fe Airport................  43  19  33  15 /  70  30   5   5 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  46  23  36  22 /  60  20   5   5 
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  26  38  24 /  50  20   5   0 
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  26  40  18 /  50  10   5   0 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  24  39  22 /  50  10   5   0 
Belen...........................  50  26  41  18 /  50  20   5   0 
Bernalillo......................  47  25  38  21 /  50  20   5   0 
Bosque Farms....................  50  26  41  17 /  50  10   5   0 
Corrales........................  47  25  39  21 /  50  10   5   0 
Los Lunas.......................  50  27  41  18 /  50  10   5   0 
Placitas........................  46  23  35  21 /  60  20   5   0 
Rio Rancho......................  46  24  38  22 /  50  10   5   0 
Socorro.........................  52  27  43  22 /  30  20   5   0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  19  30  18 /  70  30   5   5 
Tijeras.........................  44  21  32  19 /  60  20   5   5 
Edgewood........................  44  20  32  17 /  60  30   5   0 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  20  34  15 /  60  20   5   5 
Clines Corners..................  42  18  30  15 /  40  30   5   0 
Mountainair.....................  45  21  32  17 /  50  30   5   5 
Gran Quivira....................  46  23  33  19 /  40  30  10   5 
Carrizozo.......................  49  26  39  21 /  30  40  10   5 
Ruidoso.........................  44  22  31  20 /  30  60  10   5 
Capulin.........................  47  17  36  12 /   0  10   0   0 
Raton...........................  52  18  38  11 /   5  10   0   0 
Springer........................  54  22  40  12 /   5  10   0   0 
Las Vegas.......................  46  19  34  15 /  30  20   0   0 
Clayton.........................  54  25  44  16 /   0   5   0   0 
Roy.............................  51  24  39  16 /   0  10   0   0 
Conchas.........................  59  29  47  20 /   5   5   0   0 
Santa Rosa......................  56  29  43  24 /  10   5   0   0 
Tucumcari.......................  60  29  47  20 /   0   5   0   0 
Clovis..........................  61  29  46  25 /   0   5   0   0 
Portales........................  63  30  48  27 /   0   5   0   0 
Fort Sumner.....................  61  30  47  27 /   0   5   0   0 
Roswell.........................  65  30  52  27 /   0   5   0   0 
Picacho.........................  56  28  42  25 /   0  20   5   0 
Elk.............................  51  26  39  22 /  10  30  10   0 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening 
for NMZ215-220-221-225-227-228-231>233.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM MST 
this afternoon for NMZ202-205-206-208-209.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this 
evening for NMZ203-210-211.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST 
Tuesday for NMZ213-214.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this 
evening for NMZ223-224-226-229-239-240.

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for NMZ235>238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...34