044 FXUS65 KABQ 120920 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 220 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022 Low clouds and patchy fog have returned over southeastern and east central New Mexico this morning, and these will be slow to erode away by the afternoon. A vigorous low pressure system continues to approach New Mexico and will cross northern parts of the state today into early Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by a fast-moving Pacific cold front that will not only bring colder temperatures, but it will also spread snow over western and central New Mexico today with snow gradually decreasing and dwindling as the front makes it into eastern parts of the state this evening. Strong winds will also develop today and again on Tuesday as the low pressure system moves through. Wind speeds today will be highest from the south central mountains and highlands into the northeast highlands where gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible. On Tuesday the strongest winds will focus over the central mountain chain into the east central plains where gusts of 45 to 55 mph will develop. Conditions will still remain breezy to windy into Wednesday, and temperatures will stay chilly and below average through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022 Similar to yesterday morning, abundant low-level moisture has produced a deck of low clouds and patchy mist/fog across southeastern NM stretching northward toward I-40 from Santa Rosa to the TX border. A Dense Fog Advisory is currently out and persistent breezy conditions at ground level is so far inhibiting the wider development of fog. So will continue to monitor the need for this advisory and an early cancellation may be warranted. Otherwise, strengthening southwest flow is moving into western NM ahead of a potent winter storm system rolling over CA/NV this morning. This storm system is defined by two clear vorticity centers, one over northern ID and the other just south of San Francisco this hour. This latter center is slated to eject eastward accompanied by a strong 50-60kt H7 jetmax over southern NM today. Prefrontal mixing aided by a deepening surface low along the Front Range in eastern CO looks to support the current mix of High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories along the the Central Mountain Chain and adjacent highlands. Brief wind advisory conditions could reach further east into Quay and Union Counties late today, but the coverage and duration was too low to warrant an expansion of wind advisories at this time. Strong crosswinds on east-to-west oriented highways like I-40 is the main concern today across eastern NM. Winds will abruptly turn westerly with the Pacific front pushing west to east across the state. Westerly winds along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains look to strengthen considerably overnight as the lobe of upper level energy undergoes cyclogenesis over eastern CO and northwestern KS, deepening to a 527dm H5 low over NE Tuesday afternoon. Aided by a sharpening surface pressure gradient, these strong westerly winds look to expand to much of the northeastern and east-central plains by Tuesday afternoon. Another round of wind highlights looks likely. Winter weather currently over central AZ will enter western NM near sunrise this morning, pushing to the Continental Divide by mid- morning, and the Rio Grande Valley by the early afternoon, and the western slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near mid-afternoon. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will favor western slopes of the western and northern high terrain where orographic forcing will be strongest. Locally higher amounts up to a foot will favor the high peaks of the Tusas and White Water Baldy in the Gila NF. Downsloping east of the Continental Divide will limit snow potential into the Rio Grande Valley, and eliminate it entirely east of the Central Mountain Chain. The upper Rio Grande Valley near Taos could be the exception here during the afternoon when the cold front pushes through. The downsloping component looks to be less of a factor given the terrain orientation, and this area is closer to the better upper level dynamics and uplift. A short period of moderate to heavy blowing snow producing snow squalls, lower visibility, and hazardous travel conditions is also possible with the fropa through western NM. Snow will likely end fairly quickly behind the cold front, through western NM by sunset, and slowly tapering off through the Central Mountain Chain tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022 Into Tuesday night, the upper low will eject farther northeastward into Nebraska with a still strong flow aloft over NM that will be veering more northwesterly. The boundary layer and mid levels would stabilize overnight, and no mentionable precipitation is expected Tuesday night or into Wednesday. A surface low will redevelop to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos Wednesday afternoon, and a healthy pressure gradient will keep breezy to windy conditions going. The central to south central mountains and highlands may need yet another Wind Advisory for Wednesday afternoon if speed trends hold. The low will wobble into the upper MS valley by Thursday with a fairly strong northwesterly flow aloft persisting over NM. Current wind speeds in the Thursday forecast may need to be nudged upward if the gradient stays or strengthens more that what is currently advertised. Prior to last evening's model runs, a lack of continuity had kept low confidence for this time frame, and it will take another couple of runs to iron out these doubts. The Friday and weekend period have much uncertainty due to the aforementioned inconsistencies, and with the remnants of our Pacific low finally migrating to the Great Lakes and New England area, it appears an appearance from the polar vortex could follow. This sharp amplification to the wave pattern and extreme baroclinicity will give models fits for a few more runs. For now, NM is expected to stay mostly dry through Friday with low chance POPs retained in the forecast for this weekend due to the inland movement of a separate Pacific shortwave trough. Temperatures will remain below average amid the periodic meridional component to the flow and associated cold air intrusions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM MST Sun Dec 11 2022 A large upper level low will bring several aviation hazards to NM over the next 18-24 hours. Low clouds and areas of fog have already developed across southeast and east central NM. KROW is already being impacted and it's likely that KTCC will be impacted with at least MVFR to IFR cigs within the next few hours. These low clouds/fog are expected to erode between 16-18Z Mon. Starting around 14-15Z, a Pacific front will push into western NM before racing from west to east across the state through the afternoon. Along and behind the front, winds will pick up and turn more southwesterly, and eventually westerly. Gusts between 25 and 45kts are likely across western NM, increasing to between 35 and 50 kts along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. The strongest gusts are likely with the frontal passage. Additionally, snow will develop along and behind the front. Snow will be most common along and west of the Central Mountain Chain, particularly in the higher elevations where mt obscurations will be likely. Blowing snow and reduced visibility will also be common. MVFR to IFR conditions will be likely at KGUP, and potentially KFMN, in the morning with lesser confidence at central TAF sites during the afternoon. Precipitation will likely diminish before reaching eastern NM. Wind speeds and snow will slowly decrease Monday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM MST Mon Dec 12 2022 Strong southwest winds will enter NM today, focusing along the Central Mountain Chain and adjacent highlands into the eastern plains. A potent upper level trough to the west will also bring a bout of winter weather west to east across NM today. Snow accumulations will focus on west facing slopes of western and northern NM. Southwest winds quickly turn westerly with the Pacific cold front today, entering western NM this morning, reaching the Rio Grande Valley near mid-day and pushing through eastern NM by the end of the day. Strong westerly winds look to remain along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains tonight, spreading across eastern NM again through the day Tuesday. As winds lessen midweek, much colder air settles into the state. Well below normal temperatures persist as a series of backdoor cold fronts and northerly flow aloft bring reinforcing bouts of colder air into the weekend. Ventilation will be mostly poor each day as a result. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 39 19 33 16 / 90 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 35 9 27 4 / 100 50 20 10 Cuba............................ 37 17 28 14 / 90 20 10 20 Gallup.......................... 33 17 30 9 / 100 20 10 10 El Morro........................ 34 16 26 10 / 90 20 20 20 Grants.......................... 38 17 31 11 / 80 10 10 10 Quemado......................... 36 17 29 11 / 90 30 20 20 Magdalena....................... 44 21 33 18 / 50 20 10 5 Datil........................... 37 17 29 14 / 80 30 20 10 Reserve......................... 36 19 34 7 / 90 40 30 10 Glenwood........................ 39 24 34 16 / 100 50 30 10 Chama........................... 33 5 20 2 / 90 60 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 39 18 29 16 / 80 30 10 10 Pecos........................... 41 16 29 15 / 70 40 5 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 9 24 7 / 60 40 5 10 Red River....................... 30 5 17 1 / 70 60 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 37 10 21 4 / 60 60 10 20 Taos............................ 39 11 29 7 / 70 40 5 10 Mora............................ 42 16 28 12 / 50 40 5 10 Espanola........................ 45 20 36 16 / 80 30 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 41 17 30 16 / 70 40 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 19 33 15 / 70 30 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 46 23 36 22 / 60 20 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 48 26 38 24 / 50 20 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 26 40 18 / 50 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 24 39 22 / 50 10 5 0 Belen........................... 50 26 41 18 / 50 20 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 47 25 38 21 / 50 20 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 26 41 17 / 50 10 5 0 Corrales........................ 47 25 39 21 / 50 10 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 27 41 18 / 50 10 5 0 Placitas........................ 46 23 35 21 / 60 20 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 46 24 38 22 / 50 10 5 0 Socorro......................... 52 27 43 22 / 30 20 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 19 30 18 / 70 30 5 5 Tijeras......................... 44 21 32 19 / 60 20 5 5 Edgewood........................ 44 20 32 17 / 60 30 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 45 20 34 15 / 60 20 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 42 18 30 15 / 40 30 5 0 Mountainair..................... 45 21 32 17 / 50 30 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 46 23 33 19 / 40 30 10 5 Carrizozo....................... 49 26 39 21 / 30 40 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 44 22 31 20 / 30 60 10 5 Capulin......................... 47 17 36 12 / 0 10 0 0 Raton........................... 52 18 38 11 / 5 10 0 0 Springer........................ 54 22 40 12 / 5 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 46 19 34 15 / 30 20 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 25 44 16 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 51 24 39 16 / 0 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 59 29 47 20 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 29 43 24 / 10 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 29 47 20 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 61 29 46 25 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 63 30 48 27 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 30 47 27 / 0 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 65 30 52 27 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 28 42 25 / 0 20 5 0 Elk............................. 51 26 39 22 / 10 30 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ215-220-221-225-227-228-231>233. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ202-205-206-208-209. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ203-210-211. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Tuesday for NMZ213-214. High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ223-224-226-229-239-240. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for NMZ235>238. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...34