708 
FXUS63 KILX 090917
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

Showers will persist across central and southeast Illinois through
the morning before coming to an end during the afternoon. High 
temperatures will range from the middle 40s north of I-74...to the
middle 50s south of I-70. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

Vigorous upper low noted on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over
western Iowa will track E/NE into the Great Lakes today. This
feature is generating enough synoptic lift to produce a band of
showers from eastern Iowa into portions of central Illinois early
this morning. Based on radar trends and latest CAM guidance, the
highest PoPs will be focused north of the I-70 corridor through
mid-morning. After that, the showers will shift into southern
Michigan/northern Indiana toward midday...with only isolated
showers/sprinkles lingering across the N/NE KILX CWA this
afternoon. Rainfall amounts will remain light...with perhaps as
much as one quarter to one half inch along/north of a Rushville to
Bloomington line. High temperatures will mostly be in the middle
to upper 40s, with lower to middle 50s noted south of I-70 where
showers will be least prevalent. While skies will remain partly to
mostly cloudy in the wake of the wave, nearly calm winds and a
very moist boundary layer will set the stage for fog development
tonight. Most CAMs show restricted visibilities developing during
the evening, with potentially dense fog forming overnight. Given
continued cloud cover, am not confident that visibilities will 
drop low enough to support a Dense Fog Advisory, but this will 
certainly need to be addressed later today when trends become more
evident. At this point, will mention fog everywhere...with an 
emphasis across the northern two-thirds of the CWA where rainfall 
amounts will be greatest today. Low temperatures will drop into 
the middle to upper 30s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022

Another short-wave trough will skirt through the Midwest on
Saturday: however, as first seen with the 00z Dec 8 model suite,
the latest models continue to suggest much of the precip will
remain focused south of central Illinois from the Ozarks into the
lower Ohio River Valley. Have therefore shifted highest PoPs south
of I-70, with only low chance during the afternoon further north
across the remainder of the area. Once this wave departs, dry
weather and partial sunshine will return for both Sunday and
Monday.

00z Dec 9 models continue to slow the major storm system slated to
impact the Midwest early next week. This makes sense given the 
amplifying nature of the upper low over the western CONUS and the
fact that the system will likely occlude well to the west across
the western High Plains. With a clear trend now established, have
completely removed PoPs Monday night and for areas along/east of
I-57 Tuesday morning. It appears the greatest rain chances will
materialize Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night when likely to
categorical PoPs are warranted. Despite ample moisture and strong
deep-layer wind shear, instability parameters remain meager at
this point. Would not be surprised to see a few embedded
thunderstorms with this highly dynamic system, but have left
thunder out of the forecast for now. Main impact will be potential
for locally heavy rainfall, with latest guidance suggesting storm
total amounts of 1.50 to 2 inches. The rain will diminish to
scattered light showers on Wednesday before coming to an end.
After that, a return to colder/drier weather is anticipated for
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

MVFR and IFR conditions will prevail the sites overnight, and 
this will be based on cig. However, sites that are not IFR will
see IFR in 2-3 hrs. Then all sites will see cigs drop to below
600ft late tonight and last through most of the morning. Then cigs
will rise back to lower MVFR around noon or in the afternoon. Light
rain will be possible through the period and have VCSH or -RA at 
all sites overnight through tomorrow, and then ending by afternoon.
Winds will be easterly tonight and then become southeasterly 
tomorrow, and then southwest to westerly tomorrow afternoon. Some
light gusts are possible late tonight of around 18-21kts 
possible.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten