708 FXUS63 KILX 090917 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 Showers will persist across central and southeast Illinois through the morning before coming to an end during the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the middle 40s north of I-74...to the middle 50s south of I-70. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 Vigorous upper low noted on 08z/2am water vapor imagery over western Iowa will track E/NE into the Great Lakes today. This feature is generating enough synoptic lift to produce a band of showers from eastern Iowa into portions of central Illinois early this morning. Based on radar trends and latest CAM guidance, the highest PoPs will be focused north of the I-70 corridor through mid-morning. After that, the showers will shift into southern Michigan/northern Indiana toward midday...with only isolated showers/sprinkles lingering across the N/NE KILX CWA this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will remain light...with perhaps as much as one quarter to one half inch along/north of a Rushville to Bloomington line. High temperatures will mostly be in the middle to upper 40s, with lower to middle 50s noted south of I-70 where showers will be least prevalent. While skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy in the wake of the wave, nearly calm winds and a very moist boundary layer will set the stage for fog development tonight. Most CAMs show restricted visibilities developing during the evening, with potentially dense fog forming overnight. Given continued cloud cover, am not confident that visibilities will drop low enough to support a Dense Fog Advisory, but this will certainly need to be addressed later today when trends become more evident. At this point, will mention fog everywhere...with an emphasis across the northern two-thirds of the CWA where rainfall amounts will be greatest today. Low temperatures will drop into the middle to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 317 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2022 Another short-wave trough will skirt through the Midwest on Saturday: however, as first seen with the 00z Dec 8 model suite, the latest models continue to suggest much of the precip will remain focused south of central Illinois from the Ozarks into the lower Ohio River Valley. Have therefore shifted highest PoPs south of I-70, with only low chance during the afternoon further north across the remainder of the area. Once this wave departs, dry weather and partial sunshine will return for both Sunday and Monday. 00z Dec 9 models continue to slow the major storm system slated to impact the Midwest early next week. This makes sense given the amplifying nature of the upper low over the western CONUS and the fact that the system will likely occlude well to the west across the western High Plains. With a clear trend now established, have completely removed PoPs Monday night and for areas along/east of I-57 Tuesday morning. It appears the greatest rain chances will materialize Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night when likely to categorical PoPs are warranted. Despite ample moisture and strong deep-layer wind shear, instability parameters remain meager at this point. Would not be surprised to see a few embedded thunderstorms with this highly dynamic system, but have left thunder out of the forecast for now. Main impact will be potential for locally heavy rainfall, with latest guidance suggesting storm total amounts of 1.50 to 2 inches. The rain will diminish to scattered light showers on Wednesday before coming to an end. After that, a return to colder/drier weather is anticipated for the end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022 MVFR and IFR conditions will prevail the sites overnight, and this will be based on cig. However, sites that are not IFR will see IFR in 2-3 hrs. Then all sites will see cigs drop to below 600ft late tonight and last through most of the morning. Then cigs will rise back to lower MVFR around noon or in the afternoon. Light rain will be possible through the period and have VCSH or -RA at all sites overnight through tomorrow, and then ending by afternoon. Winds will be easterly tonight and then become southeasterly tomorrow, and then southwest to westerly tomorrow afternoon. Some light gusts are possible late tonight of around 18-21kts possible. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten