721 
FXUS64 KTSA 071928
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
128 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

A southern stream shortwave trough will eject into the central
High Plains tonight into Thursday. The system will induce lift on
the cold side of a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped from 
northern TX to central AR. The result will be a band of showers 
and thunderstorms from east-central and northeast OK up into far
northwest AR. A fairly narrow swath of 1.5 to 2" rains are 
expected in this zone, with the bulk of it falling during the 06Z 
to 12Z time frame. The latest HREF thunder probs suggest raising 
thunder potential a bit along this zone, though severe weather is
not expected. There is limited potential for flash flooding, and 
some rises on rivers and streams are expected, especially along 
the Illinois basin. The activity will be winding down after 12Z 
Thursday morning.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

The southern stream jet will continue to keep things active for 
the upcoming week. The next wave to affect the region will once 
again spread rain and some storms across the area Friday night 
into Saturday. Some areas may pick up another half inch to an inch
of rainfall with this system. Focus then turns to early next week
when a large and powerful storm system developing over the western
CONUS this weekend emerges into the Plains. All of the ensemble
clusters and deterministic models show it, so we're confident that
a powerful storm will be affecting the region during the first
part of next week. Timing has been and still is the main question
at this point. The system is trending slower compared to
yesterday, with the main impacts looking more into Tuesday rather
than Monday. Both the upper low and surface low tracks are
forecast to be to our north, so winter weather is not expected 
with this system. If enough instability can lift north into the 
region ahead of the upper trough and associated front, some higher
end severe weather and locally heavy rainfall could occur. Trends
will need to be monitored with this system in the coming days.

Lacy 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

Low CIGS will continue this afternoon at 1-2 kft for most TAF
sites. Rain showers will gradually increase in coverage and
intensity throughout the day, especially after 3-4Z this evening.
As this occurs CIGS will drop to 300-800 ft with VIS reductions to
1-4 SM, with the greatest reductions for TAF sites in Tulsa, and
northwest AR where rainfall will be heaviest. An isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but probabilities are below 
what would be needed to include in the TAF. Scattered rain showers
continue Thursday morning but with some recovery in VIS/CIGS. 
Wind will be light and variable for the TAF period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  61  40  57 / 100  60   0   0 
FSM   56  65  48  65 /  90  90  10   0 
MLC   52  64  44  61 /  90  70  10   0 
BVO   46  57  34  53 / 100  50   0   0 
FYV   52  63  41  61 / 100  90  10   0 
BYV   50  59  45  58 / 100  90  10   0 
MKO   51  64  42  58 / 100  80   0   0 
MIO   48  60  39  53 / 100  70   0   0 
F10   49  63  40  58 / 100  60   0   0 
HHW   59  66  51  66 /  60  60  30   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06