721 FXUS64 KTSA 071928 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 128 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Thru Tonight) Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 A southern stream shortwave trough will eject into the central High Plains tonight into Thursday. The system will induce lift on the cold side of a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped from northern TX to central AR. The result will be a band of showers and thunderstorms from east-central and northeast OK up into far northwest AR. A fairly narrow swath of 1.5 to 2" rains are expected in this zone, with the bulk of it falling during the 06Z to 12Z time frame. The latest HREF thunder probs suggest raising thunder potential a bit along this zone, though severe weather is not expected. There is limited potential for flash flooding, and some rises on rivers and streams are expected, especially along the Illinois basin. The activity will be winding down after 12Z Thursday morning. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 The southern stream jet will continue to keep things active for the upcoming week. The next wave to affect the region will once again spread rain and some storms across the area Friday night into Saturday. Some areas may pick up another half inch to an inch of rainfall with this system. Focus then turns to early next week when a large and powerful storm system developing over the western CONUS this weekend emerges into the Plains. All of the ensemble clusters and deterministic models show it, so we're confident that a powerful storm will be affecting the region during the first part of next week. Timing has been and still is the main question at this point. The system is trending slower compared to yesterday, with the main impacts looking more into Tuesday rather than Monday. Both the upper low and surface low tracks are forecast to be to our north, so winter weather is not expected with this system. If enough instability can lift north into the region ahead of the upper trough and associated front, some higher end severe weather and locally heavy rainfall could occur. Trends will need to be monitored with this system in the coming days. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2022 Low CIGS will continue this afternoon at 1-2 kft for most TAF sites. Rain showers will gradually increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day, especially after 3-4Z this evening. As this occurs CIGS will drop to 300-800 ft with VIS reductions to 1-4 SM, with the greatest reductions for TAF sites in Tulsa, and northwest AR where rainfall will be heaviest. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but probabilities are below what would be needed to include in the TAF. Scattered rain showers continue Thursday morning but with some recovery in VIS/CIGS. Wind will be light and variable for the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 49 61 40 57 / 100 60 0 0 FSM 56 65 48 65 / 90 90 10 0 MLC 52 64 44 61 / 90 70 10 0 BVO 46 57 34 53 / 100 50 0 0 FYV 52 63 41 61 / 100 90 10 0 BYV 50 59 45 58 / 100 90 10 0 MKO 51 64 42 58 / 100 80 0 0 MIO 48 60 39 53 / 100 70 0 0 F10 49 63 40 58 / 100 60 0 0 HHW 59 66 51 66 / 60 60 30 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06