847 
FXUS64 KLUB 122021
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
221 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

The center of the surface high pressure that settled in across the 
forecast area has now moved to just east of us, and surface winds 
have shifted to the south in response. However, there is not 
expected to be a significant increase in wind speeds until mid to 
late Sunday morning when cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado 
increases in response to the next upper level low to traverse the 4-
corners region. Low level warm advection on the strength of the 
breezy south winds late Sunday morning through afternoon will help 
push temperatures a couple degrees warmer than today's highs, the 
increase limited in part to increasing cloud cover with bases around 
5,000 ft AGL. As for tonight's lows, a cold and dry air mass will 
remain in place. South winds are likely to remain light enough to 
allow temperatures to be pretty efficient in their decrease 
overnight. Will thus trend a little lower from the previous 
forecast. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

By tomorrow night models have the upper low progged to be over north 
central Arizona and swinging across New Mexico into Monday morning. 
The upper low will continue on a track still slightly to the north 
across Amarillo and the Southern Texas Panhandle Monday. This track 
will limit the chances for precipitation across the Southern Texas 
Panhandle and southward, with much of the area remaining dry. Model 
blends continue to pick up on this northward track of the upper low 
with precipitation chances decreasing for tomorrow night into Monday 
morning and the best chances remaining across the Southern Texas 
Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Temperatures overnight tomorrow are 
expected to drop to below freezing into the early morning hours 
Monday, so any wrap around precipitation Monday morning may result in 
a light dusting to a few tenths of snow across the Southern Texas 
Panhandle.

Surface lee cyclogenesis will develop Monday morning along the 
eastern New Mexico and Texas border, which will swing across the 
South Plains bringing a cold front through the area by the afternoon 
hours. Winds following the frontal passage will become breezy with 
tightened pressure gradients and a 30 to 40 knot 850mb jet axis on 
the back side of the surface low. North winds of around 25 to 30 mph 
are possible and if the speed of the system aloft slows a bit, then 
a wind advisory may need to be considered across portions of the 
South Plains Monday. Temperatures following the front will remain 
cold across the Southern Texas Panhandle and the northern portions 
of the South Plains with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Areas 
across the southern South Plains and into the Rolling Plains will 
likely warm a bit more into the upper 40s to lower 50s prior to the 
frontal passage.

Cold air will remain in place through the remainder of the week as a 
few shortwaves and fronts are projected across the CONUS through the 
week. Models are still inconsistent with the timing and strengths of 
these shortwaves, but there remains a slight chance for some 
moisture to return with the next shortwave mid-week. Overall, the 
trend will mostly be dry and cold through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

VFR conditions with south winds at or below 11 kts through to the
end of the period when wind speeds are expected to begin to 
increase.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07