847 FXUS64 KLUB 122021 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 221 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 The center of the surface high pressure that settled in across the forecast area has now moved to just east of us, and surface winds have shifted to the south in response. However, there is not expected to be a significant increase in wind speeds until mid to late Sunday morning when cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado increases in response to the next upper level low to traverse the 4- corners region. Low level warm advection on the strength of the breezy south winds late Sunday morning through afternoon will help push temperatures a couple degrees warmer than today's highs, the increase limited in part to increasing cloud cover with bases around 5,000 ft AGL. As for tonight's lows, a cold and dry air mass will remain in place. South winds are likely to remain light enough to allow temperatures to be pretty efficient in their decrease overnight. Will thus trend a little lower from the previous forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 221 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 By tomorrow night models have the upper low progged to be over north central Arizona and swinging across New Mexico into Monday morning. The upper low will continue on a track still slightly to the north across Amarillo and the Southern Texas Panhandle Monday. This track will limit the chances for precipitation across the Southern Texas Panhandle and southward, with much of the area remaining dry. Model blends continue to pick up on this northward track of the upper low with precipitation chances decreasing for tomorrow night into Monday morning and the best chances remaining across the Southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Temperatures overnight tomorrow are expected to drop to below freezing into the early morning hours Monday, so any wrap around precipitation Monday morning may result in a light dusting to a few tenths of snow across the Southern Texas Panhandle. Surface lee cyclogenesis will develop Monday morning along the eastern New Mexico and Texas border, which will swing across the South Plains bringing a cold front through the area by the afternoon hours. Winds following the frontal passage will become breezy with tightened pressure gradients and a 30 to 40 knot 850mb jet axis on the back side of the surface low. North winds of around 25 to 30 mph are possible and if the speed of the system aloft slows a bit, then a wind advisory may need to be considered across portions of the South Plains Monday. Temperatures following the front will remain cold across the Southern Texas Panhandle and the northern portions of the South Plains with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Areas across the southern South Plains and into the Rolling Plains will likely warm a bit more into the upper 40s to lower 50s prior to the frontal passage. Cold air will remain in place through the remainder of the week as a few shortwaves and fronts are projected across the CONUS through the week. Models are still inconsistent with the timing and strengths of these shortwaves, but there remains a slight chance for some moisture to return with the next shortwave mid-week. Overall, the trend will mostly be dry and cold through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 VFR conditions with south winds at or below 11 kts through to the end of the period when wind speeds are expected to begin to increase. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...07