248 
FXUS65 KVEF 062158
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
158 PM PST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching Pacific storm will result in
deteriorating weather across the area tonight through mid-week.
Snow will begin across the Sierra by Monday morning and spread
across the higher elevations of southern Nevada by Tuesday. Lower
elevations, including the Las Vegas Metro area, will see
widespread precipitation Monday night through early Wednesday.
Periods of gusty winds and cool temperatures can also be expected. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday. 

Over the next several days, the main concern across the CWA will 
be an approaching cold upper-level low that is moving down from 
the Pacific Northwest. Early afternoon satellite images show an 
impressive atmospheric river extending from near the central 
California coast westward around the base of the low to near 160W.
Portions of the Sierra will begin to see a prolonged period of 
precipitation starting this evening, potentially bringing several 
feet to the eastern slopes and Sierra crest through mid-week. The 
progression of the system has slowed some, and as a result, 
impacts to our portion of the Sierra have been delayed. As a 
result, the start time of the Winter Storm Warning for western 
sections of Inyo County has been delayed until 7 AM PST Monday. 
The end time of the warning remains unchanged at 10 PM PST 
Wednesday. 

As the low approaches the region overnight and Monday, increasing
south to southwest winds can also be expected. The latest 
guidance continues to indicate a band of stronger winds forming 
across southern Inyo and south-central Nevada, including the 
Spring Mountains and the Sheep Range, late tonight and Monday. A 
Wind advisory remains in effect for these areas from 10 PM PST 
tonight through 10 PM PST tomorrow evening. Gusty winds are also 
expected across far western San Bernardino County tomorrow, but 
the current thinking is that speeds will remain below advisory 
levels. Wind impacts will continue into Tuesday, with advisory-
level winds likely over portions of southern Nevada and northwest 
Arizona. 

As the aforementioned low and atmospheric river continues to move
south along the California coast, trajectories will become more 
favorable to spread moisture into the southern Great Basin, and 
widespread precipitations is expected over most areas starting 
Monday night and continuing through Tuesday before gradually 
ending Tuesday night and Wednesday. Forecasted snow levels have 
continued to rise, reducing the potential for significant 
snowfall. However, the latest guidance still indicates the 
potential for over 8 inches of snow above 7000 feet in the Spring 
Mountains and Sheep range, and a Winter Storm Watch remains in 
effect for this area. However, if snow amounts continue to 
decrease, only a Winter Weather Advisory may be required for this 
area. Accumulating snow is also likely in the higher elevations of
Lincoln and central Nye counties, but lower elevations are 
forecast only to see light amounts from this storm. Other sections
of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will see rain, with 
around a half of an inch forecast for the Las Vegas metro area 
starting Monday evening and continuing into Tuesday night. 


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

Cold, and unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday as 
trough slowly crawls through the Great Basin. On Wednesday, AR may
still be over Mohave County in the morning but should be shifting
east out of the county so precipitation amounts will become 
lighter throughout the day. However, snow levels will be lowering 
coinciding with trough passage. Snow levels early Wednesday 
morning across Clark, Lincoln, eastern San Bernardino and Mohave 
Counties will probably range between 5500-7500 feet, but will be 
lowering to 3500-4500 feet in southern Nevada, Inyo and San 
Bernardino Counties. For Mohave, snow levels will lower to 
4500-5500 feet by late afternoon. Precipitation with the system 
will gradual end/exit Mohave County Wednesday night as the trough 
slowly shifts east into the Rockies.

Thursday-Saturday, WPC cluster analysis indicates the region will 
remain under a zonal to potential weak, flat ridge. The period looks 
dry, but temperatures will stay cool with highs some 8-12 degrees 
below normal. Probably see some higher north wind gusts localized to 
the lower CRV behind the exiting trough.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds are expect to turn to 
the south late this afternoon before becoming southwest this 
evening. Stronger southerly winds will develop on Monday morning and 
strengthen into the afternoon with gusts around 30kts. No 
significant cloud cover is expected through Monday. Low CIGs and 
rain are expected on Tuesday.  

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...South to southwest winds will be common for the rest of 
today generally 10-15 kts with the exception of KDAG, where west 
winds will gust 25-30 knots. South to southwest winds will increase 
on Monday at 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 30 kts. Expect SCT-BKN 
high clouds through Monday except at KBIH where CIGs will be between 
BKN060-100 beginning Monday afternoon with -SHRA. Lower CIGs are 
rain are expected on Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Planz
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Czyzyk

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