248 FXUS65 KVEF 062158 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 158 PM PST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS...An approaching Pacific storm will result in deteriorating weather across the area tonight through mid-week. Snow will begin across the Sierra by Monday morning and spread across the higher elevations of southern Nevada by Tuesday. Lower elevations, including the Las Vegas Metro area, will see widespread precipitation Monday night through early Wednesday. Periods of gusty winds and cool temperatures can also be expected. && .SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday. Over the next several days, the main concern across the CWA will be an approaching cold upper-level low that is moving down from the Pacific Northwest. Early afternoon satellite images show an impressive atmospheric river extending from near the central California coast westward around the base of the low to near 160W. Portions of the Sierra will begin to see a prolonged period of precipitation starting this evening, potentially bringing several feet to the eastern slopes and Sierra crest through mid-week. The progression of the system has slowed some, and as a result, impacts to our portion of the Sierra have been delayed. As a result, the start time of the Winter Storm Warning for western sections of Inyo County has been delayed until 7 AM PST Monday. The end time of the warning remains unchanged at 10 PM PST Wednesday. As the low approaches the region overnight and Monday, increasing south to southwest winds can also be expected. The latest guidance continues to indicate a band of stronger winds forming across southern Inyo and south-central Nevada, including the Spring Mountains and the Sheep Range, late tonight and Monday. A Wind advisory remains in effect for these areas from 10 PM PST tonight through 10 PM PST tomorrow evening. Gusty winds are also expected across far western San Bernardino County tomorrow, but the current thinking is that speeds will remain below advisory levels. Wind impacts will continue into Tuesday, with advisory- level winds likely over portions of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. As the aforementioned low and atmospheric river continues to move south along the California coast, trajectories will become more favorable to spread moisture into the southern Great Basin, and widespread precipitations is expected over most areas starting Monday night and continuing through Tuesday before gradually ending Tuesday night and Wednesday. Forecasted snow levels have continued to rise, reducing the potential for significant snowfall. However, the latest guidance still indicates the potential for over 8 inches of snow above 7000 feet in the Spring Mountains and Sheep range, and a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for this area. However, if snow amounts continue to decrease, only a Winter Weather Advisory may be required for this area. Accumulating snow is also likely in the higher elevations of Lincoln and central Nye counties, but lower elevations are forecast only to see light amounts from this storm. Other sections of southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will see rain, with around a half of an inch forecast for the Las Vegas metro area starting Monday evening and continuing into Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday. Cold, and unsettled conditions will persist into Wednesday as trough slowly crawls through the Great Basin. On Wednesday, AR may still be over Mohave County in the morning but should be shifting east out of the county so precipitation amounts will become lighter throughout the day. However, snow levels will be lowering coinciding with trough passage. Snow levels early Wednesday morning across Clark, Lincoln, eastern San Bernardino and Mohave Counties will probably range between 5500-7500 feet, but will be lowering to 3500-4500 feet in southern Nevada, Inyo and San Bernardino Counties. For Mohave, snow levels will lower to 4500-5500 feet by late afternoon. Precipitation with the system will gradual end/exit Mohave County Wednesday night as the trough slowly shifts east into the Rockies. Thursday-Saturday, WPC cluster analysis indicates the region will remain under a zonal to potential weak, flat ridge. The period looks dry, but temperatures will stay cool with highs some 8-12 degrees below normal. Probably see some higher north wind gusts localized to the lower CRV behind the exiting trough. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds are expect to turn to the south late this afternoon before becoming southwest this evening. Stronger southerly winds will develop on Monday morning and strengthen into the afternoon with gusts around 30kts. No significant cloud cover is expected through Monday. Low CIGs and rain are expected on Tuesday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...South to southwest winds will be common for the rest of today generally 10-15 kts with the exception of KDAG, where west winds will gust 25-30 knots. South to southwest winds will increase on Monday at 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 30 kts. Expect SCT-BKN high clouds through Monday except at KBIH where CIGs will be between BKN060-100 beginning Monday afternoon with -SHRA. Lower CIGs are rain are expected on Tuesday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Planz LONG TERM...Pierce AVIATION...Czyzyk For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter