356 
FXCA62 TJSJ 062017
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
417 PM AST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A drier air mass moved today, but the soils remained very
saturated and the rivers are running high. Additional shower
activity (although not as frequent) are expected to reach the area
early in the week. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 
Monday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...
A strong mid to upper level trough remained positioned north of
Hispaniola. At the surface, a low pressure is developing north of
the islands, and this system is maintaining a steering wind flow
from the south. The circulation of the low is currently pulling a
drier air mass, with precipitable water values around 1.3 inches,
while the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently located east of the Virgin Islands. As the surface low
begins to move toward the west on Monday and Tuesday, the area of
enhanced moisture will once again reach the local islands. Under 
a southerly wind flow, the areas that are more likely to receive 
the highest amounts of rain are the southern half of Puerto Rico, 
Vieques, Culebra and the United States Virgin Islands. These rains
are not expected to be as intense or to last as long as previous 
showers, but since the soils are saturated, the area will remain 
prone to flooding, mudslides and rapid river rises. 

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.../from prev discussion/

A moist, southerly flow on Wednesday will promote passing showers
along the southern coastline of Puerto Rico followed by afternoon
convection across northern sections. Strong westerly winds will be
present aloft due to an upper level low over the Bahamian 
Islands, which will promote instability at the surface possibly 
aiding afternoon thunderstorm activity. There will be an abrupt 
backing of the lower level wind flow by Thursday, settling on a 
southeasterly direction. The environment still remains favorable 
with abundant moisture which will allow for passing showers and 
afternoon convection across northwestern Puerto Rico. 

Friday afternoon a tropical wave looks to be passing across the
Caribbean Sea at 15N with a westward track. This will further
prolong the ongoing wet pattern by providing moisture, especially
across the Caribbean waters. By this time the lower level wind
flow has become easterly, which will promote the greatest 
activity of the day across the interior/western sections of Puerto
Rico. Streamer formation is also expected downwind of the USVI, 
El Yunque, and the Cayey mountain range. The same pattern is 
expect for Saturday and Sunday, however a mid to upper level ridge
begins to build to the northwest of the region, possibly reducing
the strength of next weekends afternoon convection. Overall, a
wet, seasonal pattern is expected. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR durg prd. SHRA/Isold TSRA en route btw islands but mainly ovr 
Caribbean waters and between eastern PR and the Northern Leeward 
islands. SCT ocnl BKN lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL090 mainly east of 
the USVI and over central interior and nrn PR. VCSH/Isold TSRA psbl 
at TJSJ/TIST/TISX. L/lvl wnds veering fm S-SW and incr w/ht with max 
wnd btw 40-50 kts nr FL300. Sfc wnds fm the SSE 10-15 kts but 
locally higher gusts bcmg 5-10 kts aft 06/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
The outer buoy still show seas up to 12 feet, and this northerly 
swell will continue to invade the Atlantic waters and passages 
through tomorrow, and small craft advisories are in effect. Seas 
will be 8 to 10 feet in the offshore Atlantic. Additionally, 
unsettled weather conditions will continue with passing showers 
and thunderstorms impacting the local waters. For the beaches, 
there is a high rip current risk for northern Puerto Rico, Culebra
and eastern St. Croix. 

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for PRZ001>013.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for PRZ001-002-
     005-008.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for PRZ010.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for PRZ012.

VI...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for VIZ002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....ERG
PUBLIC...MMC