356 FXCA62 TJSJ 062017 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 417 PM AST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A drier air mass moved today, but the soils remained very saturated and the rivers are running high. Additional shower activity (although not as frequent) are expected to reach the area early in the week. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday... A strong mid to upper level trough remained positioned north of Hispaniola. At the surface, a low pressure is developing north of the islands, and this system is maintaining a steering wind flow from the south. The circulation of the low is currently pulling a drier air mass, with precipitable water values around 1.3 inches, while the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity is currently located east of the Virgin Islands. As the surface low begins to move toward the west on Monday and Tuesday, the area of enhanced moisture will once again reach the local islands. Under a southerly wind flow, the areas that are more likely to receive the highest amounts of rain are the southern half of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the United States Virgin Islands. These rains are not expected to be as intense or to last as long as previous showers, but since the soils are saturated, the area will remain prone to flooding, mudslides and rapid river rises. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.../from prev discussion/ A moist, southerly flow on Wednesday will promote passing showers along the southern coastline of Puerto Rico followed by afternoon convection across northern sections. Strong westerly winds will be present aloft due to an upper level low over the Bahamian Islands, which will promote instability at the surface possibly aiding afternoon thunderstorm activity. There will be an abrupt backing of the lower level wind flow by Thursday, settling on a southeasterly direction. The environment still remains favorable with abundant moisture which will allow for passing showers and afternoon convection across northwestern Puerto Rico. Friday afternoon a tropical wave looks to be passing across the Caribbean Sea at 15N with a westward track. This will further prolong the ongoing wet pattern by providing moisture, especially across the Caribbean waters. By this time the lower level wind flow has become easterly, which will promote the greatest activity of the day across the interior/western sections of Puerto Rico. Streamer formation is also expected downwind of the USVI, El Yunque, and the Cayey mountain range. The same pattern is expect for Saturday and Sunday, however a mid to upper level ridge begins to build to the northwest of the region, possibly reducing the strength of next weekends afternoon convection. Overall, a wet, seasonal pattern is expected. && .AVIATION... VFR durg prd. SHRA/Isold TSRA en route btw islands but mainly ovr Caribbean waters and between eastern PR and the Northern Leeward islands. SCT ocnl BKN lyrs nr FL025...FL050...FL090 mainly east of the USVI and over central interior and nrn PR. VCSH/Isold TSRA psbl at TJSJ/TIST/TISX. L/lvl wnds veering fm S-SW and incr w/ht with max wnd btw 40-50 kts nr FL300. Sfc wnds fm the SSE 10-15 kts but locally higher gusts bcmg 5-10 kts aft 06/23Z. && .MARINE... The outer buoy still show seas up to 12 feet, and this northerly swell will continue to invade the Atlantic waters and passages through tomorrow, and small craft advisories are in effect. Seas will be 8 to 10 feet in the offshore Atlantic. Additionally, unsettled weather conditions will continue with passing showers and thunderstorms impacting the local waters. For the beaches, there is a high rip current risk for northern Puerto Rico, Culebra and eastern St. Croix. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for PRZ001>013. High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008. High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for PRZ010. High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for PRZ012. VI...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for VIZ001-002. High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for VIZ002. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....ERG PUBLIC...MMC