625 
FXUS62 KILM 061144
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
644 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Mid Atlantic states will maintain humid
onshore winds and above normal temperatures through Monday. Low
pressure over or near the Bahamas early to mid week should 
shift northward later in the week likely bringing some 
significant marine and coastal impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the near term forecast with the 
latest update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: A coastal trough will push inland this morning bringing a few 
light showers and/or sprinkles but no significant rainfall is 
expected. Some transient low clouds and fog are also expected 
through around daybreak, especially inland. Later today some mid-
level vorticity should move over the area but with the deeper 
moisture staying mostly west of the area we think most locales will 
remain dry with the best chance of a few showers well inland 
near/west of I-95. Highs will once again be well above normal as we 
approach record highs in the lower to mid 80s away from the coast 
(see Climate section for details).

Tonight: A weak coastal trough this evening could bring a few 
showers toward the coast but overall we think it will remain dry as 
high pressure builds from the north. The main concern will be the 
risk for dense fog as indicated by dynamical and statistical 
guidance as boundary layer winds should be fairly light and
clouds will be diminishing. Lows will stay well above normal 
near 60 degrees away from the warmer coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The early week period is shaping up to be rather nice 
as warm and relatively humid conditions will persist Monday with 
little change noted in the pattern from this weekend. Mid level 
ridging across the lower Mississippi Valley will push a dry cold 
front across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will 
be some ten degrees cooler Tuesday with decent northeasterly winds 
in the mix as well. For Monday highs will once again ed up a bit 
north of 80 in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Medium range guidance continues to point to a rather 
unsettled period as there should be a tropical or sub tropical 
entity moving west in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Confidence is 
somewhat low on the eventual track and evolution of this entity late 
in the period but early on, Wednesday and Thursday should offer up 
very breezy conditions, somewhat overcast skies and the occasional 
light shower along the coast. Any moisture in the column during this 
time will be fighting very dry air via high pressure to the north at 
the surface. Will maintain the foreboding wording in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through around 06Z/07,
then should see some restrictions late in the period due to fog
and possible low clouds, especially inland terminals, as we
expect pretty good radiational cooling conditions to develop
with lessening sky cover and light winds.

Extended Outlook... Forecast confidence is moderate in mostly 
VFR conditions through Wednesday, except for some MVFR or worse 
ceilings/vsbys due to early morning low clouds/fog. Moderate 
confidence for restrictions from low clouds/rain Wednesday 
night/Thursday. Gusty winds over 20 kt likely mid week, 
especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Expect diminishing winds as a coastal trough 
shifts inland and the pressure gradient weakens. Seas will 
slowly diminish in accordance, likely falling below Small Craft 
Advisory levels (6 ft) later this morning. Winds will back to 
the northeast tonight as high pressure builds from the north but
no significant increase in speeds is expected.

Monday through Thursday: Decent enough conditions will persist 
for Monday with a modest northeast flow around 15 knots or so 
and seas of 2-4 or perhaps even five feet. The bottom drops out 
on conditions from this point onward as a cold front moves 
across with a strong northeast flow developing. If that isn't 
enough a broad flow around some tropical or sub tropical entity 
will enhance the gradient further especially Wednesday and 
beyond. Certainly small craft and or gale headlines are almost a
given at this time. Significant seas will represent as well 
perhaps printing some double digits.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northeast to east winds are expected for the middle portion
of the week which will be occurring during the full moon. Thus,
minor coastal flooding will be possible, mainly during the 
morning high tides. Also, life-threatening surf conditions and 
beach erosion will also be possible, especially along east- 
facing beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Nov 6:
ILM: 83/2003
FLO: 84/1994
CRE: 86/1948
LBT: 84/2003

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
Ncz105. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this 
morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...