625 FXUS62 KILM 061144 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 644 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Mid Atlantic states will maintain humid onshore winds and above normal temperatures through Monday. Low pressure over or near the Bahamas early to mid week should shift northward later in the week likely bringing some significant marine and coastal impacts. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the near term forecast with the latest update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: A coastal trough will push inland this morning bringing a few light showers and/or sprinkles but no significant rainfall is expected. Some transient low clouds and fog are also expected through around daybreak, especially inland. Later today some mid- level vorticity should move over the area but with the deeper moisture staying mostly west of the area we think most locales will remain dry with the best chance of a few showers well inland near/west of I-95. Highs will once again be well above normal as we approach record highs in the lower to mid 80s away from the coast (see Climate section for details). Tonight: A weak coastal trough this evening could bring a few showers toward the coast but overall we think it will remain dry as high pressure builds from the north. The main concern will be the risk for dense fog as indicated by dynamical and statistical guidance as boundary layer winds should be fairly light and clouds will be diminishing. Lows will stay well above normal near 60 degrees away from the warmer coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The early week period is shaping up to be rather nice as warm and relatively humid conditions will persist Monday with little change noted in the pattern from this weekend. Mid level ridging across the lower Mississippi Valley will push a dry cold front across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be some ten degrees cooler Tuesday with decent northeasterly winds in the mix as well. For Monday highs will once again ed up a bit north of 80 in most areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Medium range guidance continues to point to a rather unsettled period as there should be a tropical or sub tropical entity moving west in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Confidence is somewhat low on the eventual track and evolution of this entity late in the period but early on, Wednesday and Thursday should offer up very breezy conditions, somewhat overcast skies and the occasional light shower along the coast. Any moisture in the column during this time will be fighting very dry air via high pressure to the north at the surface. Will maintain the foreboding wording in the HWO. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions through around 06Z/07, then should see some restrictions late in the period due to fog and possible low clouds, especially inland terminals, as we expect pretty good radiational cooling conditions to develop with lessening sky cover and light winds. Extended Outlook... Forecast confidence is moderate in mostly VFR conditions through Wednesday, except for some MVFR or worse ceilings/vsbys due to early morning low clouds/fog. Moderate confidence for restrictions from low clouds/rain Wednesday night/Thursday. Gusty winds over 20 kt likely mid week, especially near the coast. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Expect diminishing winds as a coastal trough shifts inland and the pressure gradient weakens. Seas will slowly diminish in accordance, likely falling below Small Craft Advisory levels (6 ft) later this morning. Winds will back to the northeast tonight as high pressure builds from the north but no significant increase in speeds is expected. Monday through Thursday: Decent enough conditions will persist for Monday with a modest northeast flow around 15 knots or so and seas of 2-4 or perhaps even five feet. The bottom drops out on conditions from this point onward as a cold front moves across with a strong northeast flow developing. If that isn't enough a broad flow around some tropical or sub tropical entity will enhance the gradient further especially Wednesday and beyond. Certainly small craft and or gale headlines are almost a given at this time. Significant seas will represent as well perhaps printing some double digits. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Strong northeast to east winds are expected for the middle portion of the week which will be occurring during the full moon. Thus, minor coastal flooding will be possible, mainly during the morning high tides. Also, life-threatening surf conditions and beach erosion will also be possible, especially along east- facing beaches. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for Nov 6: ILM: 83/2003 FLO: 84/1994 CRE: 86/1948 LBT: 84/2003 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Ncz105. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...