074 
FXUS64 KOHX 061127
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

After a pretty windy and rainy Saturday, things have calmed down 
considerably. Winds have relaxed across the entire CWA and we're 
finally starting to see some light rain development amongst a swath 
of low clouds covering the central portions of the mid-state. Totals 
should be light, maybe a few hundredths. What could be more 
interesting is the area over our far northwest counties, basically 
Clarksville back to Land Between the Lakes. This area is starting to 
see some clearing and with winds relaxed, patchy dense fog will 
become possible as we near sunrise.

These low clouds draped over Middle TN seem to be a weak boundary of 
sorts, one that will likely stick around for at least another 24 to 
30 hours. Expectations are for this boundary to at least provide 
these low clouds over the east half through today, but by this 
evening, it could become the catalyst for some light rain 
accumulations. Most models are suggesting some shower development, 
so we'll keep some chance PoP in there overnight. A tenth or two 
will be possible in a few spots, with most seeing less. The 
influences of this boundary should taper off Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday) 
Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Expect cloud cover to become much less on Tuesday. This should 
allow temperatures to start climbing again with more sunshine. 
Unseasonal afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s will be 
possible both Tuesday, Wednesday and potentially again Thursday.

The final point of contention with tonight's forecast package 
revolves around the pattern for the second half of this week. The 
latest GFS ramps up a late-season tropical wave off of Florida (one 
that I hope doesn't come to fruition), but the influences of this 
wave could very well take away any significant rain chances for us 
on Friday. We will, at a minimum, have the passage of a frontal 
boundary that will usher in much more seasonal temperatures for next 
weekend, but rain chances seem less with it at this point. Will 
maintain a small chance for rain, but there's much to be worked out 
with this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Some fog has developed at KCKV this morning as they are under
clear skies, but the rest of the terminals have MVFR cigs and look
to have continued MVFR cigs through the day. VFR conditions may
prevail in the afternoon and evening, but lower clouds look to
develop late in the evening and overnight, bringing MVFR/IFR cigs
yet again with LIFR cigs possible at all terminals after 06Z.
Southerly/southwesterly winds can be expected during the day
around 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable this evening and
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  61  74  54 /  20  30  20   0 
Clarksville    74  56  73  51 /   0  20  10   0 
Crossville     71  58  71  50 /  30  30  30   0 
Columbia       73  61  75  55 /  20  30  30   0 
Cookeville     72  61  73  52 /  30  30  30   0 
Jamestown      72  58  71  49 /  30  30  30   0 
Lawrenceburg   70  61  75  57 /  20  20  30   0 
Murfreesboro   74  61  76  54 /  30  30  30   0 
Waverly        71  62  74  59 /  20  30  30   0 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Barnwell