074 FXUS64 KOHX 061127 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 527 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 After a pretty windy and rainy Saturday, things have calmed down considerably. Winds have relaxed across the entire CWA and we're finally starting to see some light rain development amongst a swath of low clouds covering the central portions of the mid-state. Totals should be light, maybe a few hundredths. What could be more interesting is the area over our far northwest counties, basically Clarksville back to Land Between the Lakes. This area is starting to see some clearing and with winds relaxed, patchy dense fog will become possible as we near sunrise. These low clouds draped over Middle TN seem to be a weak boundary of sorts, one that will likely stick around for at least another 24 to 30 hours. Expectations are for this boundary to at least provide these low clouds over the east half through today, but by this evening, it could become the catalyst for some light rain accumulations. Most models are suggesting some shower development, so we'll keep some chance PoP in there overnight. A tenth or two will be possible in a few spots, with most seeing less. The influences of this boundary should taper off Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Expect cloud cover to become much less on Tuesday. This should allow temperatures to start climbing again with more sunshine. Unseasonal afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s will be possible both Tuesday, Wednesday and potentially again Thursday. The final point of contention with tonight's forecast package revolves around the pattern for the second half of this week. The latest GFS ramps up a late-season tropical wave off of Florida (one that I hope doesn't come to fruition), but the influences of this wave could very well take away any significant rain chances for us on Friday. We will, at a minimum, have the passage of a frontal boundary that will usher in much more seasonal temperatures for next weekend, but rain chances seem less with it at this point. Will maintain a small chance for rain, but there's much to be worked out with this pattern. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Some fog has developed at KCKV this morning as they are under clear skies, but the rest of the terminals have MVFR cigs and look to have continued MVFR cigs through the day. VFR conditions may prevail in the afternoon and evening, but lower clouds look to develop late in the evening and overnight, bringing MVFR/IFR cigs yet again with LIFR cigs possible at all terminals after 06Z. Southerly/southwesterly winds can be expected during the day around 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable this evening and overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 61 74 54 / 20 30 20 0 Clarksville 74 56 73 51 / 0 20 10 0 Crossville 71 58 71 50 / 30 30 30 0 Columbia 73 61 75 55 / 20 30 30 0 Cookeville 72 61 73 52 / 30 30 30 0 Jamestown 72 58 71 49 / 30 30 30 0 Lawrenceburg 70 61 75 57 / 20 20 30 0 Murfreesboro 74 61 76 54 / 30 30 30 0 Waverly 71 62 74 59 / 20 30 30 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Barnwell