197 
FXUS64 KOUN 061111
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
511 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Wind shift/weak cold front will progress slowly southward over the 
region today and stall across southeast Oklahoma tonight. Winds 
ahead of and behind the front are not expected to very strong
outside of northwest portions of Oklahoma, where northerly gusts 
of 20 to 30 mph will be possible early this afternoon. There will
be a temperature gradient across Oklahoma and western north Texas
this afternoon (mainly mid to upper 70s across southeast third or
so of Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas and lower-middle 60s 
farther north and west behind front).

By late tonight, areas of fog and drizzle will be possible across
south central and southeast Oklahoma. Any measurable rain activity
should hold off until Monday and Tuesday. Lows tonight will range
from the 30s across northwest Oklahoma well behind the front with
drier air in place, to the mid-upper 50s across southeast 
Oklahoma where moisture will increase near the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

Deep theta-e advection will occur Monday into Tuesday which is 
expected to result in northward expansion of some fog and drizzle
and the domination of cloud cover much of Monday through Tuesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected as well, 
especially late Monday through Tuesday morning, spreading from 
south to north. The storms should stay elevated with relatively 
low lapse rates, near and ahead of northward advancing warm front,
so chances for organized severe storms appear low.

Warm and humid days with plenty of cloud cover for the middle of 
the week, followed by another cold front aided by strong longwave 
trough. Latest runs of the ECM and GFS are fairly similar for the 
Southern Plains with a pacific cold front/dryline pushing in on 
Thursday followed by a more Canadian based airmass Thursday night 
and Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms still appear 
possible near the initial frontal intrusion which will spread from
west to east across the region on Thursday, but compared to
previous runs, the rain chances are decreasing. Modeled lapse 
rates and overall instability is on the low side but shear will be
increasing with time. Organized severe weather still appears
unlikely at this point. As colder air filters in over the region 
behind the secondary and stronger cold front, a brief mix of rain 
and snow still appears possible across far northern Oklahoma 
Thursday night if we can get any precipitation going this far
south. With current forecast of progressive upper trough staying
well to our north, no real impacts are currently expected with 
any wintry precipitation. Early morning freezes still appear 
likely over much of the region going into next weekend along with 
cooler than average high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front 
will continue to make its way southward through the area this 
morning and afternoon. Winds will shift towards the north as the 
front moves through. Otherwise, a few high clouds are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  47  69  61 /   0   0  20  30 
Hobart OK         68  43  68  58 /   0   0  10  30 
Wichita Falls TX  76  48  74  63 /   0   0  10  20 
Gage OK           66  37  68  54 /   0   0   0  30 
Ponca City OK     67  46  68  58 /   0   0  10  50 
Durant OK         75  58  75  63 /   0  10  40  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...13