197 FXUS64 KOUN 061111 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 511 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 212 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Wind shift/weak cold front will progress slowly southward over the region today and stall across southeast Oklahoma tonight. Winds ahead of and behind the front are not expected to very strong outside of northwest portions of Oklahoma, where northerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible early this afternoon. There will be a temperature gradient across Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon (mainly mid to upper 70s across southeast third or so of Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas and lower-middle 60s farther north and west behind front). By late tonight, areas of fog and drizzle will be possible across south central and southeast Oklahoma. Any measurable rain activity should hold off until Monday and Tuesday. Lows tonight will range from the 30s across northwest Oklahoma well behind the front with drier air in place, to the mid-upper 50s across southeast Oklahoma where moisture will increase near the front. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 212 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 Deep theta-e advection will occur Monday into Tuesday which is expected to result in northward expansion of some fog and drizzle and the domination of cloud cover much of Monday through Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected as well, especially late Monday through Tuesday morning, spreading from south to north. The storms should stay elevated with relatively low lapse rates, near and ahead of northward advancing warm front, so chances for organized severe storms appear low. Warm and humid days with plenty of cloud cover for the middle of the week, followed by another cold front aided by strong longwave trough. Latest runs of the ECM and GFS are fairly similar for the Southern Plains with a pacific cold front/dryline pushing in on Thursday followed by a more Canadian based airmass Thursday night and Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms still appear possible near the initial frontal intrusion which will spread from west to east across the region on Thursday, but compared to previous runs, the rain chances are decreasing. Modeled lapse rates and overall instability is on the low side but shear will be increasing with time. Organized severe weather still appears unlikely at this point. As colder air filters in over the region behind the secondary and stronger cold front, a brief mix of rain and snow still appears possible across far northern Oklahoma Thursday night if we can get any precipitation going this far south. With current forecast of progressive upper trough staying well to our north, no real impacts are currently expected with any wintry precipitation. Early morning freezes still appear likely over much of the region going into next weekend along with cooler than average high temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front will continue to make its way southward through the area this morning and afternoon. Winds will shift towards the north as the front moves through. Otherwise, a few high clouds are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 47 69 61 / 0 0 20 30 Hobart OK 68 43 68 58 / 0 0 10 30 Wichita Falls TX 76 48 74 63 / 0 0 10 20 Gage OK 66 37 68 54 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 67 46 68 58 / 0 0 10 50 Durant OK 75 58 75 63 / 0 10 40 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...13