194 
FXUS63 KEAX 060805
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
205 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 205 AM CST SUN NOV 6 2022

Key Messages: 

- Near normal conditions today - Monday.
- Chance for rain in eastern KS and western MO Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures through the middle of the week followed 
by a stark cool down for the weekend. 

A strong shortwave trough was moving across the Northern Plains 
early this morning. A pacific cold front associated with this 
shortwave extended from the eastern Dakotas southward into 
northeastern NE and then trails southwestward through central NE 
into northwestern KS. As this shortwave tracks east across the Upper 
Midwest into Great Lakes region, the cold front will be forced 
southward. The front will move into northwestern MO mid morning and 
then quickly push southward and be through the entire by early this 
afternoon. There is very limited moisture available for this front 
and as a result it should just be a wind shift, a slight drop in 
temperatures and more noticeable drop in dewpoints. Temperatures 
today will be close to normal for most folks with highs around 60 
degrees. In central MO, where the front won't move through until 
this afternoon, temperatures will be able to warm into the middle 
60s. For Monday, easterly to east-northeasterly winds will help keep 
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For Tuesday, as the low-level flow becomes southerly and warm/moist 
air begins to advect northward, a chance for showers and a few 
storms looks possible across eastern KS and western MO. Strong 
isentropic ascent, very evident at the 295K and 300K levels, will 
help lead to the shower activity. The strongest moisture transport 
and ascent will be across central and eastern KS, clipping western 
MO. So the best chances for precipitation will be in our western 
zones.  Temperatures will trend warmer on Tuesday but with increased 
cloud cover and showers around, the warm up may be limited. Still 
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected across much of 
eastern KS and western MO. Temperatures will be cooler further north 
and east away from the stronger warm/moist advection.

For the middle of the week, strong southerly flow will lead to 
temperatures well above normal Wednesday and potentially into 
Thursday. Models have trended slower with a strong shortwave trough 
and as a result have trended warmer Thursday. But there remains a 
fair amount of spread for both the high and low temperatures 
Thursday. If things slow down even more, highs in the 70s look 
more likely. If the wave moves out faster, the cooler solutions 
would be more likely. Regardless, by the weekend, a significant 
cool down is expected with temperatures into the 30s and 40s 
across the area. Both the ECMWF and the GFS have a potent 
shortwave trough in the middle of the country Thursday. Models 
take the strongest vorticity advection north of the area but the 
trailing vorticity with diffluent flow aloft will need to be 
watched closely. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions may lead 
to unseasonably high instability within a strongly sheared 
environment, leading to thunderstorm development.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT SUN NOV 6 2022

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. There is a marginal
threat for LLWS overnight into tomorrow morning. Strong low-level
winds in the 40-50 kt range from 1000 to 2000 feet AGL are 
present in this layer. While there is limited directional shear, there
is a quick increase into those strong winds from the surface 
which is in the 10-15 kts range. So will keep the LLWS going. A
weak front will move through the area today, shifting winds from
the south-southwest to the north this afternoon. Winds behind the
front will be around 10 kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB