194 FXUS63 KEAX 060805 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 205 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 205 AM CST SUN NOV 6 2022 Key Messages: - Near normal conditions today - Monday. - Chance for rain in eastern KS and western MO Tuesday. - Above normal temperatures through the middle of the week followed by a stark cool down for the weekend. A strong shortwave trough was moving across the Northern Plains early this morning. A pacific cold front associated with this shortwave extended from the eastern Dakotas southward into northeastern NE and then trails southwestward through central NE into northwestern KS. As this shortwave tracks east across the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region, the cold front will be forced southward. The front will move into northwestern MO mid morning and then quickly push southward and be through the entire by early this afternoon. There is very limited moisture available for this front and as a result it should just be a wind shift, a slight drop in temperatures and more noticeable drop in dewpoints. Temperatures today will be close to normal for most folks with highs around 60 degrees. In central MO, where the front won't move through until this afternoon, temperatures will be able to warm into the middle 60s. For Monday, easterly to east-northeasterly winds will help keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Tuesday, as the low-level flow becomes southerly and warm/moist air begins to advect northward, a chance for showers and a few storms looks possible across eastern KS and western MO. Strong isentropic ascent, very evident at the 295K and 300K levels, will help lead to the shower activity. The strongest moisture transport and ascent will be across central and eastern KS, clipping western MO. So the best chances for precipitation will be in our western zones. Temperatures will trend warmer on Tuesday but with increased cloud cover and showers around, the warm up may be limited. Still temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected across much of eastern KS and western MO. Temperatures will be cooler further north and east away from the stronger warm/moist advection. For the middle of the week, strong southerly flow will lead to temperatures well above normal Wednesday and potentially into Thursday. Models have trended slower with a strong shortwave trough and as a result have trended warmer Thursday. But there remains a fair amount of spread for both the high and low temperatures Thursday. If things slow down even more, highs in the 70s look more likely. If the wave moves out faster, the cooler solutions would be more likely. Regardless, by the weekend, a significant cool down is expected with temperatures into the 30s and 40s across the area. Both the ECMWF and the GFS have a potent shortwave trough in the middle of the country Thursday. Models take the strongest vorticity advection north of the area but the trailing vorticity with diffluent flow aloft will need to be watched closely. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions may lead to unseasonably high instability within a strongly sheared environment, leading to thunderstorm development. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1209 AM CDT SUN NOV 6 2022 VFR conditions expected through the forecast. There is a marginal threat for LLWS overnight into tomorrow morning. Strong low-level winds in the 40-50 kt range from 1000 to 2000 feet AGL are present in this layer. While there is limited directional shear, there is a quick increase into those strong winds from the surface which is in the 10-15 kts range. So will keep the LLWS going. A weak front will move through the area today, shifting winds from the south-southwest to the north this afternoon. Winds behind the front will be around 10 kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...CDB Aviation...CDB