722 
FXUS61 KCLE 060535
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
135 AM EDT Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded low moves northeast across the northern Great Lakes
tonight, with its associated cold front moving east across the
area through tonight. Another cold front sweeps southeastward 
across the area Sunday night. High pressure builds across the 
Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday, with the next low 
pressure system moving across the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1:30 AM Update...
Further reduced PoPs across the area with this forecast update.
Precipitation has primarily been over NE Ohio and NW PA where
instability is greater. Behind the front, cloud cover is
dissipating with clearing anticipated to occur from west to east
overnight into Sunday afternoon. 

9:30 PM Update...
Shower coverage is a bit lower than previously anticipated, so 
nudged hourly PoPs down to likely in eastern zones, with higher 
PoPs in the east as the front encounters a bit more instability.
Can't rule out isolated gusty winds if any convective showers 
manage to develop, but wind gusts will be on the decline as the 
night progresses.

Previous Discussion...
Upper-level low and associated occluded surface low located 
over southern Wisconsin will continue northeast across the 
northern Great Lakes region this evening and tonight. Strong 
southerly flow exists downstream this trough, with a 55-65 kts 
low-level jet at 850mb overspreading the area this area through 
tonight. Scattered cloud cover has allowed day-time heating to 
produce a well-mixed boundary layer, efficiently mixing these 
strong winds aloft down to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 knots 
were common along and west of I-71, with isolated gusts as high 
as 50 knots observed. For this reason, a wind advisory continues
for this region for at least a few more hours. Elsewhere, gusts
of 30-35 knots were more common.

A cold front extends southward from the aforementioned low,
will move east across the area this evening into tonight. 
Showers along and ahead of the cold front (which you can see on
radar across Indiana, southern Michigan and northwest Ohio) will
move eastward across the forecast area this evening through
tonight. Model guidance predicting around 250 J/kg of MUCAPE in
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania tonight, which may
allow for an isolated thunderstorm. If convection were to
develop, would not be surprised to see strong wind gusts
accompany the convection, especially given the intense low-level
flow.

Showers may linger in east-central Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania tomorrow morning before giving way to mostly sunny
skies areawide tomorrow afternoon. Cold air advection isn't too
strong and temperatures are expected to remain above normal
tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather is expected through the near term period with high 
pressure overhead. Near-normal high temperatures in the upper 50s to 
lower 60s are expected with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The quiet weather pattern will continue through the long term period 
as the high pressure axis slowly shifts east into New England, 
ushering in a warmer, southwesterly flow across the region for 
Wednesday and Thursday. Above-average temperatures in the upper 60s 
to lower 70s are anticipated during this timeframe. 

Beyond Thursday, a low pressure system will move east through the 
Upper Great Lakes, extending a strong cold front across the region 
sometime towards the end of the week and into the weekend. This cold 
front will signal a significant pattern change with the arrival of  
below-average temperatures and perhaps increasing chances for lake 
effect rain and snow as we head into mid-November. Highs on Saturday 
may struggle to reach the 40s with perhaps widespread mid-20s by 
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Showers with embedded gusty winds are on their way out of the
CWA, mainly remaining over KERI overnight tonight. Brief 
periods of MVFR and wind gusts up to 25-30 knots remain possible
as the line moves eastward. Otherwise, southwesterly winds at 
all other terminals have decreased near or below 12 knots. 

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with clearing
conditions occurring from west to east overnight tonight into 
Sunday afternoon. Winds may gust up to 18-20 knots during the 
afternoon hours tomorrow generally between 18Z/Sun to 00Z/Mon. 
Otherwise sustained southwesterly winds decrease to 5-8 knots by
Sunday evening. 

Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions continue across the lake this afternoon, and
especially across the western basin where near-Gale southerly winds 
and wind gusts are occurring. These elevated southerly winds are 
expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening 
before diminishing to less than 20 knots by later tonight.
Conditions will improve from west to east across the lake tonight, 
with improvement seen across the eastern basin by mid-to-late 
Sunday morning. Following tonight, the only period of concern could 
be on Tuesday when slightly higher onshore northeasterly flow of 15 
to 20 knots is possible. Otherwise, winds are expected to 
generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range through mid-week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for 
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for 
     LEZ145>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Kahn