722 FXUS61 KCLE 060535 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 135 AM EDT Sun Nov 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded low moves northeast across the northern Great Lakes tonight, with its associated cold front moving east across the area through tonight. Another cold front sweeps southeastward across the area Sunday night. High pressure builds across the Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday, with the next low pressure system moving across the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1:30 AM Update... Further reduced PoPs across the area with this forecast update. Precipitation has primarily been over NE Ohio and NW PA where instability is greater. Behind the front, cloud cover is dissipating with clearing anticipated to occur from west to east overnight into Sunday afternoon. 9:30 PM Update... Shower coverage is a bit lower than previously anticipated, so nudged hourly PoPs down to likely in eastern zones, with higher PoPs in the east as the front encounters a bit more instability. Can't rule out isolated gusty winds if any convective showers manage to develop, but wind gusts will be on the decline as the night progresses. Previous Discussion... Upper-level low and associated occluded surface low located over southern Wisconsin will continue northeast across the northern Great Lakes region this evening and tonight. Strong southerly flow exists downstream this trough, with a 55-65 kts low-level jet at 850mb overspreading the area this area through tonight. Scattered cloud cover has allowed day-time heating to produce a well-mixed boundary layer, efficiently mixing these strong winds aloft down to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 knots were common along and west of I-71, with isolated gusts as high as 50 knots observed. For this reason, a wind advisory continues for this region for at least a few more hours. Elsewhere, gusts of 30-35 knots were more common. A cold front extends southward from the aforementioned low, will move east across the area this evening into tonight. Showers along and ahead of the cold front (which you can see on radar across Indiana, southern Michigan and northwest Ohio) will move eastward across the forecast area this evening through tonight. Model guidance predicting around 250 J/kg of MUCAPE in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania tonight, which may allow for an isolated thunderstorm. If convection were to develop, would not be surprised to see strong wind gusts accompany the convection, especially given the intense low-level flow. Showers may linger in east-central Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania tomorrow morning before giving way to mostly sunny skies areawide tomorrow afternoon. Cold air advection isn't too strong and temperatures are expected to remain above normal tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather is expected through the near term period with high pressure overhead. Near-normal high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The quiet weather pattern will continue through the long term period as the high pressure axis slowly shifts east into New England, ushering in a warmer, southwesterly flow across the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Above-average temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are anticipated during this timeframe. Beyond Thursday, a low pressure system will move east through the Upper Great Lakes, extending a strong cold front across the region sometime towards the end of the week and into the weekend. This cold front will signal a significant pattern change with the arrival of below-average temperatures and perhaps increasing chances for lake effect rain and snow as we head into mid-November. Highs on Saturday may struggle to reach the 40s with perhaps widespread mid-20s by Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Showers with embedded gusty winds are on their way out of the CWA, mainly remaining over KERI overnight tonight. Brief periods of MVFR and wind gusts up to 25-30 knots remain possible as the line moves eastward. Otherwise, southwesterly winds at all other terminals have decreased near or below 12 knots. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with clearing conditions occurring from west to east overnight tonight into Sunday afternoon. Winds may gust up to 18-20 knots during the afternoon hours tomorrow generally between 18Z/Sun to 00Z/Mon. Otherwise sustained southwesterly winds decrease to 5-8 knots by Sunday evening. Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday. && .MARINE... Rough marine conditions continue across the lake this afternoon, and especially across the western basin where near-Gale southerly winds and wind gusts are occurring. These elevated southerly winds are expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening before diminishing to less than 20 knots by later tonight. Conditions will improve from west to east across the lake tonight, with improvement seen across the eastern basin by mid-to-late Sunday morning. Following tonight, the only period of concern could be on Tuesday when slightly higher onshore northeasterly flow of 15 to 20 knots is possible. Otherwise, winds are expected to generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range through mid-week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for LEZ145>147. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for LEZ148- 149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines/Saunders SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Kahn