196 
FXUS62 KMLB 191807
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
207 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...New MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...

...Autumn Weather Continues Next Couple of Days with Drier/Cooler 
Conditions...

Current-Tonight...The stubborn mid-high level clouds continue to be 
slow to dissipate, but we are starting to see some signs of this 
northward. This has in fact kept temperatures lower than models have 
forecast as well. We should see some temperature recovery from north 
to south as clouds thin this afternoon. We will likely see some 
"low max temps" for this calendar date. See Climate section below.
Conditions expected to remain mostly dry, though we cannot rule 
out an isolated shower along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts where 
moisture is deepest late this afternoon into tonight.

The brisk northerly winds will fall back to light this evening and 
overnight. Min temps will fall into the 50s for much of the area, 
except M-U40s north/west of I-4 and L60s for the immediate Treasure 
Coast and adjacent barrier islands. Some normally cooler locales 
north/west of I-4 may realize L40s for mins.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Late Week...Chilly conds will linger early Thu with morning lows in 
the M40s to U50s. Highs will recover to the M-U70s with a return of 
some marine source cloudiness to the coastal, and to some degree 
interior. A sprinkle or two wl be possible over the Treasure Coast 
and adjacent Atlc waters. Nly component winds wl allow for another 
cool evening, with temps averaging in the 50s to L60s. Flow wl 
steadily veer onshore into Fri as high pressure eases off the Mid 
Atlc coast. Local temps will moderate with the increasing marine 
influence. PoPs wl be largely absent aside from a chance of a 
sprinkle or two along the Treasure Coast and Atlantic waters. Highs 
wl recover into the more seasonable M-U70s.

Extended...Modest onshore flow is advertised for the upcoming 
weekend. A weak coastal trough late Sat into Sun may bring some 
brief light showers, with some enhanced lower coastal clouds. 
Measurable pcpn should however be less than a tenth of an inch. 
Expect seasonable temps recovering back into the L80s Sat and Sun, 
then M80s early next week with dry conds expected at least the first 
half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

Today-Tonight...Poor, choppy, boating conditions over the Gulf 
Stream with Cautionary Statements remaining in place this evening.
Statements likely to be dropped near shore with next CWF issuance
as northerly winds diminish a bit here. Seas still building to 6 
ft over the Gulf Stream tonight. Isolated showers will remain 
possible over the Treasure Coast waters. 

Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Late Week...N-NE winds will diminish somewhat and slowly veer during 
Thu and Fri. Expect winds 11-15 kts with seas 3-4 ft near shore and 
up to 5 ft offshore.

Extended...NE-E fetch winds 10 to 15 kts with seas 3 to 4 ft Sat 
increasing up to 4-6 ft Sun. There will be a mentionable chc for 
mainly light pcpn ascd with an advertised coastal trough. Modest 
easing of gradient early next week should allow for 3 to 5 ft seas 
to prevail by Mon then 3-4 ft Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

Drier air is slowly filtering southward this afternoon, but it 
took some time as temps remained low with clouds slower to thin as
anticipated. Breezy northerly winds will decrease this evening. 
Fuel conditions continue to inhibit need for headline for critical
fire environmental conditions this afternoon. Moderating RH conds
through late week due to more marine influence wl bring higher 
daily RHs through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

VFR conditions expected through the period. Some mid to upper 
level clouds south of MCO are still struggling to thin out, 
meaning greater coverage areas south of the Cape. Winds out of the
NNW to NNE at 10 to 12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible through
the remainder of today. Winds slow down a bit overnight and 
through Thursday at 7-10 kt, with less gusty conditions as the 
pgrad relaxes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022

The St. Johns river at Astor is currently at 4.1 feet, and is 
forecast to very slowly decline to 4.0 feet late this week. 
Northerly winds are expected slow or stop the decline, keeping the
river at or near Major Flood Stage through the weekend.

Near Deland, the river will remain in Flood Stage at or above 4.0 
feet for the foreseeable future. The river is currently at 5.9 feet, 
and is forecast to very slowly decline to 5.4 feet by the late 
weekend.

Near Sanford, the river will remain in Flood Stage at or above 5.5 
feet for the foreseeable future. The river is currently at 8.3 feet, 
and is forecast to very slowly decline to 8.0 feet by the late 
weekend.

At Geneva above Lake Harney, the river will remain above the 10.0 
foot threshold for Major Flood Stage for the foreseeable future.
The river is at 11.0 feet, and is forecast to very slowly decline to 
10.7 feet by the late weekend.

Near Cocoa, the river remains in Minor Flood Stage at 16.2 feet. It 
is forecast to continue a slow drop back to 16.0 feet by late week, 
and then may fall below Minor Flood Stage of 16.0 feet into Action 
Stage by this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...Current records for October 19th and 20th

LOC  DATE   LO-MIN   LO-MAX  
DAB 19-Oct  46 1940  68 1927  
LEE 19-Oct  48 1967  72 1996  
SFB 19-Oct  47 1977  70 1955  
MCO 19-Oct  47 1977  71 1955  
MLB 19-Oct  49 2009  73 1967  
VRB 19-Oct  49 1977  74 1955  
FPR 19-Oct  50 2009  73 1955 

LOC  DATE   LO-MIN   LO-MAX
DAB 20-Oct  44 1989  60 1989  
LEE 20-Oct  45 1989  68 2011  
SFB 20-Oct  45 1989  69 2011  
MCO 20-Oct  46 1989  62 1989  
MLB 20-Oct  47 1989  63 1989  
VRB 20-Oct  47 1989  65 1989  
FPR 20-Oct  45 1989  67 1989 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  74  58  76 /   0   0   0  10 
MCO  51  76  57  79 /   0   0   0  10 
MLB  55  76  62  77 /  10  10  10  20 
VRB  57  77  62  79 /  10  10  20  20 
LEE  45  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  48  74  54  76 /   0   0   0  10 
ORL  50  75  57  78 /   0   0   0  10 
FPR  58  76  62  78 /  10  10  20  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock 
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....Leahy 
AVIATION...Tollefsen