196 FXUS62 KMLB 191807 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 207 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 ...New MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE... .DISCUSSION... ...Autumn Weather Continues Next Couple of Days with Drier/Cooler Conditions... Current-Tonight...The stubborn mid-high level clouds continue to be slow to dissipate, but we are starting to see some signs of this northward. This has in fact kept temperatures lower than models have forecast as well. We should see some temperature recovery from north to south as clouds thin this afternoon. We will likely see some "low max temps" for this calendar date. See Climate section below. Conditions expected to remain mostly dry, though we cannot rule out an isolated shower along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts where moisture is deepest late this afternoon into tonight. The brisk northerly winds will fall back to light this evening and overnight. Min temps will fall into the 50s for much of the area, except M-U40s north/west of I-4 and L60s for the immediate Treasure Coast and adjacent barrier islands. Some normally cooler locales north/west of I-4 may realize L40s for mins. Previous Extended Forecast Discussion... Late Week...Chilly conds will linger early Thu with morning lows in the M40s to U50s. Highs will recover to the M-U70s with a return of some marine source cloudiness to the coastal, and to some degree interior. A sprinkle or two wl be possible over the Treasure Coast and adjacent Atlc waters. Nly component winds wl allow for another cool evening, with temps averaging in the 50s to L60s. Flow wl steadily veer onshore into Fri as high pressure eases off the Mid Atlc coast. Local temps will moderate with the increasing marine influence. PoPs wl be largely absent aside from a chance of a sprinkle or two along the Treasure Coast and Atlantic waters. Highs wl recover into the more seasonable M-U70s. Extended...Modest onshore flow is advertised for the upcoming weekend. A weak coastal trough late Sat into Sun may bring some brief light showers, with some enhanced lower coastal clouds. Measurable pcpn should however be less than a tenth of an inch. Expect seasonable temps recovering back into the L80s Sat and Sun, then M80s early next week with dry conds expected at least the first half of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Today-Tonight...Poor, choppy, boating conditions over the Gulf Stream with Cautionary Statements remaining in place this evening. Statements likely to be dropped near shore with next CWF issuance as northerly winds diminish a bit here. Seas still building to 6 ft over the Gulf Stream tonight. Isolated showers will remain possible over the Treasure Coast waters. Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion... Late Week...N-NE winds will diminish somewhat and slowly veer during Thu and Fri. Expect winds 11-15 kts with seas 3-4 ft near shore and up to 5 ft offshore. Extended...NE-E fetch winds 10 to 15 kts with seas 3 to 4 ft Sat increasing up to 4-6 ft Sun. There will be a mentionable chc for mainly light pcpn ascd with an advertised coastal trough. Modest easing of gradient early next week should allow for 3 to 5 ft seas to prevail by Mon then 3-4 ft Tue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Drier air is slowly filtering southward this afternoon, but it took some time as temps remained low with clouds slower to thin as anticipated. Breezy northerly winds will decrease this evening. Fuel conditions continue to inhibit need for headline for critical fire environmental conditions this afternoon. Moderating RH conds through late week due to more marine influence wl bring higher daily RHs through the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 VFR conditions expected through the period. Some mid to upper level clouds south of MCO are still struggling to thin out, meaning greater coverage areas south of the Cape. Winds out of the NNW to NNE at 10 to 12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible through the remainder of today. Winds slow down a bit overnight and through Thursday at 7-10 kt, with less gusty conditions as the pgrad relaxes. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The St. Johns river at Astor is currently at 4.1 feet, and is forecast to very slowly decline to 4.0 feet late this week. Northerly winds are expected slow or stop the decline, keeping the river at or near Major Flood Stage through the weekend. Near Deland, the river will remain in Flood Stage at or above 4.0 feet for the foreseeable future. The river is currently at 5.9 feet, and is forecast to very slowly decline to 5.4 feet by the late weekend. Near Sanford, the river will remain in Flood Stage at or above 5.5 feet for the foreseeable future. The river is currently at 8.3 feet, and is forecast to very slowly decline to 8.0 feet by the late weekend. At Geneva above Lake Harney, the river will remain above the 10.0 foot threshold for Major Flood Stage for the foreseeable future. The river is at 11.0 feet, and is forecast to very slowly decline to 10.7 feet by the late weekend. Near Cocoa, the river remains in Minor Flood Stage at 16.2 feet. It is forecast to continue a slow drop back to 16.0 feet by late week, and then may fall below Minor Flood Stage of 16.0 feet into Action Stage by this weekend. && .CLIMATE...Current records for October 19th and 20th LOC DATE LO-MIN LO-MAX DAB 19-Oct 46 1940 68 1927 LEE 19-Oct 48 1967 72 1996 SFB 19-Oct 47 1977 70 1955 MCO 19-Oct 47 1977 71 1955 MLB 19-Oct 49 2009 73 1967 VRB 19-Oct 49 1977 74 1955 FPR 19-Oct 50 2009 73 1955 LOC DATE LO-MIN LO-MAX DAB 20-Oct 44 1989 60 1989 LEE 20-Oct 45 1989 68 2011 SFB 20-Oct 45 1989 69 2011 MCO 20-Oct 46 1989 62 1989 MLB 20-Oct 47 1989 63 1989 VRB 20-Oct 47 1989 65 1989 FPR 20-Oct 45 1989 67 1989 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 49 74 58 76 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 51 76 57 79 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 55 76 62 77 / 10 10 10 20 VRB 57 77 62 79 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 45 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 48 74 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 50 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 58 76 62 78 / 10 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ ALL FORECAST GRIDS...Sedlock RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....Leahy AVIATION...Tollefsen