054 
FXUS64 KLZK 161957
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
257 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show the
leading edge of a cold front located from Mountain Home westward 
to Fayetteville...moving to the southeast. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a cut-off, nearly closed, upper level low pressure
system in place over Arizona and western New Mexico. A strong
upper level trough was moving south towards the western Great
Lakes, resulting in northwest flow aloft and weak upper level
ridging. Most light rain was located south of Arkansas per
regional radars, and some partial sunshine resulted in
temperatures climbing into the mid 70s at the time of this
discussion.

Over the next 24 hours, the strong upper level trough moving south
over the western Great Lakes region will dive south before
cyclonically turning to the east over the Ohio Valley. Even though
the upper trough will remain well removed from Arkansas, it will
drag the polar jet stream south allowing a complete airmass change
to occur over the state. The warm and humid air of the past couple
of days will be replaced by a continental Polar (cP) airmass
beginning tomorrow, and holding over the state through at least
late in the week before the airmass begins to get modified by warm
air advection. This airmass exchange will result in high
temperatures remaining in the mid 50s across northern Arkansas
tomorrow, with temperatures falling about 10 degrees across
central and southern Arkansas with highs in the mid 60s Monday
afternoon. 

The cP airmass will continue advecting across the state, bringing
colder and drier air into the area through Wednesday, when the
"center" of the airmass makes its way south to Oklahoma and begins
to move east. In the short term, the forecast will be dominated by
the continued cold and dry air advection associated with the cP
airmass building over the state. As early as Tuesday morning, low
temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing for much of
northern Arkansas. Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to be
influenced by cold air advection despite sunny skies in place.
highs on Tuesday are only expected to climb into the upper 40s in
northern Arkansas, and the mid 50s for the remainder of the state.
Highs will be near record low high temperatures for portions of
the state. The record for the first instance of highs remain at or
below 55 degrees in the Little Rock area is October 5th, so it
will not be a record, but this is an unusually early cold snap for
the state. Record low temperatures are not likely Tuesday morning,
but we have issued a freeze warning due to the unusually early
onset of the first freeze of the season across northern Arkansas.
If most of Arkansas falls below freezing Wednesday morning, 
several cold air records may be set for locations across central
and southern Arkansas.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Unseasonably cold air will be in place at the start of the period 
with a freeze likely across nearly all of the state Wednesday 
morning. 1030 mb sfc ridge will be centered over eastern OK/western 
AR 12z Wednesday beneath steep nrly flow on the west side of a deep 
cyclone over the Great Lakes. Nearly calm winds and Td values in the 
teens/20s F will allow temperatures to drop rapidly Tuesday night. 

As far as average first freeze dates go across the state this would 
be much sooner for most locations, especially at KLIT. In fact, 
Little Rock's record earliest first 32 F (or colder) reading 
occurred Oct 20, 1989. This could potentially break that record by 
one day.  

No precip is expected through the period and a warming trend begins 
to take place from late week into the weekend. Sfc ridging will 
slowly shift eastward which will allow for a couple more cold nights 
but an eventual increase in moisture and temperatures. As the H500 
cyclone finally lifts northeastward the flow aloft becomes much less 
amplified and some subtle ridging moves over the region from the 
west. By next weekend temperatures begin to climb to above average 
values. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  61  29  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden AR         53  69  38  57 /  10  10   0   0 
Harrison AR       39  55  28  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    50  66  38  56 /  10   0   0   0 
Little Rock   AR  51  66  40  56 /  10   0   0   0 
Monticello AR     55  68  38  56 /  10  10   0   0 
Mount Ida AR      47  67  35  56 /  10   0   0   0 
Mountain Home AR  40  57  29  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Newport AR        45  59  30  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     52  66  38  55 /  10   0   0   0 
Russellville AR   45  65  34  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Searcy AR         46  64  34  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      50  63  36  53 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh
LONG TERM....67