054 FXUS64 KLZK 161957 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 257 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show the leading edge of a cold front located from Mountain Home westward to Fayetteville...moving to the southeast. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a cut-off, nearly closed, upper level low pressure system in place over Arizona and western New Mexico. A strong upper level trough was moving south towards the western Great Lakes, resulting in northwest flow aloft and weak upper level ridging. Most light rain was located south of Arkansas per regional radars, and some partial sunshine resulted in temperatures climbing into the mid 70s at the time of this discussion. Over the next 24 hours, the strong upper level trough moving south over the western Great Lakes region will dive south before cyclonically turning to the east over the Ohio Valley. Even though the upper trough will remain well removed from Arkansas, it will drag the polar jet stream south allowing a complete airmass change to occur over the state. The warm and humid air of the past couple of days will be replaced by a continental Polar (cP) airmass beginning tomorrow, and holding over the state through at least late in the week before the airmass begins to get modified by warm air advection. This airmass exchange will result in high temperatures remaining in the mid 50s across northern Arkansas tomorrow, with temperatures falling about 10 degrees across central and southern Arkansas with highs in the mid 60s Monday afternoon. The cP airmass will continue advecting across the state, bringing colder and drier air into the area through Wednesday, when the "center" of the airmass makes its way south to Oklahoma and begins to move east. In the short term, the forecast will be dominated by the continued cold and dry air advection associated with the cP airmass building over the state. As early as Tuesday morning, low temperatures are forecast to fall below freezing for much of northern Arkansas. Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to be influenced by cold air advection despite sunny skies in place. highs on Tuesday are only expected to climb into the upper 40s in northern Arkansas, and the mid 50s for the remainder of the state. Highs will be near record low high temperatures for portions of the state. The record for the first instance of highs remain at or below 55 degrees in the Little Rock area is October 5th, so it will not be a record, but this is an unusually early cold snap for the state. Record low temperatures are not likely Tuesday morning, but we have issued a freeze warning due to the unusually early onset of the first freeze of the season across northern Arkansas. If most of Arkansas falls below freezing Wednesday morning, several cold air records may be set for locations across central and southern Arkansas. Cavanaugh && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Unseasonably cold air will be in place at the start of the period with a freeze likely across nearly all of the state Wednesday morning. 1030 mb sfc ridge will be centered over eastern OK/western AR 12z Wednesday beneath steep nrly flow on the west side of a deep cyclone over the Great Lakes. Nearly calm winds and Td values in the teens/20s F will allow temperatures to drop rapidly Tuesday night. As far as average first freeze dates go across the state this would be much sooner for most locations, especially at KLIT. In fact, Little Rock's record earliest first 32 F (or colder) reading occurred Oct 20, 1989. This could potentially break that record by one day. No precip is expected through the period and a warming trend begins to take place from late week into the weekend. Sfc ridging will slowly shift eastward which will allow for a couple more cold nights but an eventual increase in moisture and temperatures. As the H500 cyclone finally lifts northeastward the flow aloft becomes much less amplified and some subtle ridging moves over the region from the west. By next weekend temperatures begin to climb to above average values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 44 61 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 53 69 38 57 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 39 55 28 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 50 66 38 56 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 51 66 40 56 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 55 68 38 56 / 10 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 47 67 35 56 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 40 57 29 50 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 45 59 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 52 66 38 55 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 45 65 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 46 64 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 50 63 36 53 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh LONG TERM....67