972 
FXUS63 KTOP 161745
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Key Points:

- Dry weather to continue through the next week.
- Cold temperatures to end the growing season in Kansas Tuesday and 
Wednesday.

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows little change from 
previous forecast periods with an upper low in eastern Canada, a 
ridging pattern over the PNW and a cut-off low over SoCal. The cold 
front that moved through earlier has stalled across Oklahoma 
bringing rain and thunderstorms. We will not be as lucky with rain 
to the north as dry and cooler air will filter in over the next 
several days leading to widespread hard freeze conditions by Tuesday 
morning. This afternoon will see slightly cooler temperatures 
compared to Saturday as highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s 
for much of northeast KS.

Overnight into Monday morning, a strong surface ridge will filter in 
from the north and bring the coldest air so far this season. A 
freeze warning has been issued for northern counties along the KS/NE 
border Monday morning with a widespread Freeze watch issued for 
Tuesday AM as morning lows will dip into the mid to low 20s. High 
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be well below average before 
the ridge begins to slide to the east by Wednesday. Wednesday AM 
will still see another round of mid to low 20 degree lows as the 
ridge axis passes overhead. Temperatures for the remainder of the 
week will bounce back into the 70s, approaching 80 degrees by 
Friday, with no chances for rain as brief upper-level ridging slides 
across the central Plains. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

VFR conditions expected through the period. North-northwest winds
around 10kts this afternoon will weaken slightly overnight before
increasing again after sunrise Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Oct 18     Record Cool High   Forecast High 
Topeka        38 (1898)            48 
Concordia     42 (1972)            49

Oct 18       Record Low       Forecast Low 
Topeka        24 (1948)            24 
Concordia     25 (1972)            25

Oct 19       Record Low       Forecast Low
Topeka        20 (1972)            23
Concordia     17 (1972)            26 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008>012.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for 
KSZ020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Griesemer