972 FXUS63 KTOP 161745 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Key Points: - Dry weather to continue through the next week. - Cold temperatures to end the growing season in Kansas Tuesday and Wednesday. Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows little change from previous forecast periods with an upper low in eastern Canada, a ridging pattern over the PNW and a cut-off low over SoCal. The cold front that moved through earlier has stalled across Oklahoma bringing rain and thunderstorms. We will not be as lucky with rain to the north as dry and cooler air will filter in over the next several days leading to widespread hard freeze conditions by Tuesday morning. This afternoon will see slightly cooler temperatures compared to Saturday as highs will remain in the mid to upper 60s for much of northeast KS. Overnight into Monday morning, a strong surface ridge will filter in from the north and bring the coldest air so far this season. A freeze warning has been issued for northern counties along the KS/NE border Monday morning with a widespread Freeze watch issued for Tuesday AM as morning lows will dip into the mid to low 20s. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be well below average before the ridge begins to slide to the east by Wednesday. Wednesday AM will still see another round of mid to low 20 degree lows as the ridge axis passes overhead. Temperatures for the remainder of the week will bounce back into the 70s, approaching 80 degrees by Friday, with no chances for rain as brief upper-level ridging slides across the central Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions expected through the period. North-northwest winds around 10kts this afternoon will weaken slightly overnight before increasing again after sunrise Monday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Oct 18 Record Cool High Forecast High Topeka 38 (1898) 48 Concordia 42 (1972) 49 Oct 18 Record Low Forecast Low Topeka 24 (1948) 24 Concordia 25 (1972) 25 Oct 19 Record Low Forecast Low Topeka 20 (1972) 23 Concordia 17 (1972) 26 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008>012. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KSZ020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Flanagan CLIMATE...Griesemer