208 
FXUS64 KLIX 161709
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1209 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Updated for the 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

The focus of the immediate short term remains the same as surface 
high pressure sits just to our east, but will gradually start to 
slide off the east coast today. This surface ridging to our east 
keeps southeasterly flow in place, bringing a rise in dew points and 
relative humidity as moisture continues to flow in. Light winds 
early this morning combined with this increasing moisture will 
support the development of some locally dense fog in some areas. We 
have started to see this already in a few areas. This fog should be 
most prevalent in the Atchafalaya basin and in the river drainage 
areas. Conditions should start to improve after daybreak. Fog
chances return again Monday morning. 

Beyond the fog potential our focus shifts to the deepening of the
upper level trough situated over the eastern CONUS. As this 
happens a closed low moving across the Southern Plains begins to 
shear out as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley, which 
aids in bringing additional moisture into the area. By Monday 
morning and continuing into the afternoon, PoPs increase over land
areas to around 20-30% mainly for the southshore. PoPs will be 
higher offshore where the environment looks to be more supportive 
of convection. Enough moisture will be in place to support the 
development of some showers for southern areas and overcast sky 
cover for the entire area. Mid level lapse rates will be fairly 
low which likely limits any thunderstorm chances, but don't want 
to completely rule out some isolated storms in southern areas and 
especially over the coastal waters.

Monday night the upper level trough continues to deepen as a surface 
cold front swings through our area. Behind this cold front much 
colder and drier air pushes into the area, hanging around for 
several days. PoPs will be at or near zero for a few days following 
the cold front. Definitely feeling like fall for mid-to-late week, 
possibly even feeling like winter for some. Already by Monday night 
into Tuesday morning low temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s 
for northern areas and the low to upper 50s for southern and coastal 
areas. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon fall into the low to mid 
60s for most areas. Wednesday morning temperatures see an even 
bigger cool down, falling into the mid to upper 40s for most 
northern areas and into the low to mid 40s for southern areas.
-HRL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Cool dry air will continue to filter in causing at least the 
extreme northern portion of the area to flirt with freezing temps 
by Wed morning. This air will not be in a hurry to leave either. A
slow modification will occur each day but this air mass will 
still be capable of bringing the area into the 30s Wed night and 
40s Thu night. Transition of air mass won't occur until the sfc 
high moves past the area, this does not occur until the end of the
week. The sfc high will be centered near or over the area by 
Friday then move east causing return flow off the gulf. This will 
bring moisture sfc values and depth higher beginning this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Some area airports 
(KMSY, KGPT, KHUM, KASD, KNEW) will have brief dense fog likely 
tomorrow morning around daybreak which will lower ceilings and 
visibilities to mostly LIFR conditions for a few hours. Conditions
will return to VFR status by the mid-day hours tomorrow. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Southeasterly flow will continue around 10-15 knots heading into 
Monday before we see a shift to northerly flow late Monday morning, 
briefly weaker around 5-10 knots. A strong cold front will move 
through the waters late Monday bringing quite an increase in winds, 
up to 20-25 knots, late Monday evening and through Tuesday. This 
will likely bring a small craft advisory, lasting into mid week. 
These breezy winds will bring seas up to 4-7 feet during this 
period. We should finally start to see these conditions diminish 
through late Wednesday. -HRL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  62  76  46 /   0  10  10   0 
BTR  88  66  82  53 /   0  10  20  10 
ASD  87  64  84  50 /   0  10  20  10 
MSY  86  69  83  57 /  10  10  30  10 
GPT  84  67  84  52 /   0  10  20  10 
PQL  84  64  83  51 /   0  10  20  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...MSW