208 FXUS64 KLIX 161709 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1209 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Updated for the 18Z aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The focus of the immediate short term remains the same as surface high pressure sits just to our east, but will gradually start to slide off the east coast today. This surface ridging to our east keeps southeasterly flow in place, bringing a rise in dew points and relative humidity as moisture continues to flow in. Light winds early this morning combined with this increasing moisture will support the development of some locally dense fog in some areas. We have started to see this already in a few areas. This fog should be most prevalent in the Atchafalaya basin and in the river drainage areas. Conditions should start to improve after daybreak. Fog chances return again Monday morning. Beyond the fog potential our focus shifts to the deepening of the upper level trough situated over the eastern CONUS. As this happens a closed low moving across the Southern Plains begins to shear out as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley, which aids in bringing additional moisture into the area. By Monday morning and continuing into the afternoon, PoPs increase over land areas to around 20-30% mainly for the southshore. PoPs will be higher offshore where the environment looks to be more supportive of convection. Enough moisture will be in place to support the development of some showers for southern areas and overcast sky cover for the entire area. Mid level lapse rates will be fairly low which likely limits any thunderstorm chances, but don't want to completely rule out some isolated storms in southern areas and especially over the coastal waters. Monday night the upper level trough continues to deepen as a surface cold front swings through our area. Behind this cold front much colder and drier air pushes into the area, hanging around for several days. PoPs will be at or near zero for a few days following the cold front. Definitely feeling like fall for mid-to-late week, possibly even feeling like winter for some. Already by Monday night into Tuesday morning low temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s for northern areas and the low to upper 50s for southern and coastal areas. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon fall into the low to mid 60s for most areas. Wednesday morning temperatures see an even bigger cool down, falling into the mid to upper 40s for most northern areas and into the low to mid 40s for southern areas. -HRL && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Cool dry air will continue to filter in causing at least the extreme northern portion of the area to flirt with freezing temps by Wed morning. This air will not be in a hurry to leave either. A slow modification will occur each day but this air mass will still be capable of bringing the area into the 30s Wed night and 40s Thu night. Transition of air mass won't occur until the sfc high moves past the area, this does not occur until the end of the week. The sfc high will be centered near or over the area by Friday then move east causing return flow off the gulf. This will bring moisture sfc values and depth higher beginning this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Some area airports (KMSY, KGPT, KHUM, KASD, KNEW) will have brief dense fog likely tomorrow morning around daybreak which will lower ceilings and visibilities to mostly LIFR conditions for a few hours. Conditions will return to VFR status by the mid-day hours tomorrow. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Southeasterly flow will continue around 10-15 knots heading into Monday before we see a shift to northerly flow late Monday morning, briefly weaker around 5-10 knots. A strong cold front will move through the waters late Monday bringing quite an increase in winds, up to 20-25 knots, late Monday evening and through Tuesday. This will likely bring a small craft advisory, lasting into mid week. These breezy winds will bring seas up to 4-7 feet during this period. We should finally start to see these conditions diminish through late Wednesday. -HRL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 62 76 46 / 0 10 10 0 BTR 88 66 82 53 / 0 10 20 10 ASD 87 64 84 50 / 0 10 20 10 MSY 86 69 83 57 / 10 10 30 10 GPT 84 67 84 52 / 0 10 20 10 PQL 84 64 83 51 / 0 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...MSW