540 
FXUS63 KFGF 161448
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

A bit less precip seen on web cams around Lake of the Woods this
morning, but can't rule out a few light showers along our far
eastern border. Kept our low POPs in that area going but no
impacts expected. Cloudy and blustery today, with cooler
temperatures expected. A few spots have been trying to break out a
bit of sun, but more clouds coming down from Canada and any
heating will lead to some cumulus development so overall think it
will remain more cloudy than not for the rest of the day. 

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Despite CAA from persistent northwesterly winds, low temperatures
this morning have managed to stick around the low to mid 30s due
to cloud cover. Did adjust temperatures a tad as a result. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track for another cool, cloudy, and breezy 
day ahead. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Overview...

Gusty winds out of the north-northwest will persist across the short 
term period, becoming a bit lesser on Monday. Some low end 
precipitation chances will remain possible, primarily across the 
Lake of the Woods region, but should remain minimally impactful. 
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side 
today into Monday, as the coldest air mass of this early fall season 
arrives. 

Discussion...

As an upper level low continues to churn over Ontario, north-
northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the northern Plains.
At the surface, high pressure is expected to begin to build into the 
region as well. Prior to this, height rises will contribute to 
another day of breezy winds on Sunday, with gusts generally in the 
20-30 kt range out of the north-northwest. As a result of persistent 
CAA at the surface and aloft, as well as cloud cover attributed to 
the upper low, high temperatures today will only reach the 30s to 
low 40s across the region. A few rain/snow showers cannot be ruled 
out again throughout the day across and downstream of the Lake of 
the Woods region within the CAA regime. Impacts should remain 
minimal, however, with only a few hundredths of new QPF anticipated 
at most. 

With high pressure building in, winds should begin to lessen 
moving into Monday with cloud cover becoming less prominent as the 
upper low gradually translates eastward. The conjunction of 
diminishing winds and clearing skies should yield ideal radiational 
cooling conditions moving into Monday morning. A cold start to the 
work week is on tap as a result with most areas dipping into the 
teens by Monday morning. Very little reprieve from the cool, below 
normal temperatures is anticipated on Monday as the surface high 
pressure becomes more centered over the region. As a result, highs 
on Monday will struggle to make it out of the 30s. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Overall, fairly low impact weather is expected for the long term 
period.

As the stagnant 500mb pattern finally breaks down and the FA is 
between the departing low and the western ridge, surface high 
pressure will build down into the FA Tuesday morning. A night of 
clear skies and light winds means chilly morning lows again. After 
the cold start Tuesday, there should be plenty of sun and minimal 
wind, but highs will stay on the colder side. The surface high 
should drop southward by Wednesday morning, but light winds should
allow for another chilly night, especially east of the Red River 
Valley.

The long awaited return to normal highs should occur on Wednesday 
afternoon, but mainly along and west of the Valley (it will still be 
a little cool to the east). The WPC 500mb cluster analysis shows 
pretty good model agreement for days 4 and 5 (Wednesday and 
Thursday) with some ridging pushing into the FA. There is a better 
signal for warming in areas along and west of the Valley, with 
slightly cooler temperatures continuing into Thursday east of the 
Valley. This is supported by surface winds as well, which look to 
feature at least a period of west (warming) winds. These periods 
traditionally favor warmer temperatures along and west of the 
Valley. Moving into Friday and Saturday, the cluster analysis shows 
wider solutions, and much more uncertainty. More solutions seem to 
point to a western trough. For this FA, mild temperatures would 
continue with no mention of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Cigs throughout the day will vary as an upper level low continues
to churn over Ontario. Lowest cigs, in the MVFR range, are
anticipated at BJI and TVF for much of the day as a result. GFK
and FAR will be on the edge of this lower cloud deck and may dip
into MVFR at times throughout the day as well. Otherwise, winds
will be gusty once again out of the north-northwest in the 15-20
kt range, with gusts in the 25-30 kt range possible, especially
within the Red River Valley. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Rick
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Rick