540 FXUS63 KFGF 161448 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 948 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 948 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A bit less precip seen on web cams around Lake of the Woods this morning, but can't rule out a few light showers along our far eastern border. Kept our low POPs in that area going but no impacts expected. Cloudy and blustery today, with cooler temperatures expected. A few spots have been trying to break out a bit of sun, but more clouds coming down from Canada and any heating will lead to some cumulus development so overall think it will remain more cloudy than not for the rest of the day. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Despite CAA from persistent northwesterly winds, low temperatures this morning have managed to stick around the low to mid 30s due to cloud cover. Did adjust temperatures a tad as a result. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for another cool, cloudy, and breezy day ahead. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Overview... Gusty winds out of the north-northwest will persist across the short term period, becoming a bit lesser on Monday. Some low end precipitation chances will remain possible, primarily across the Lake of the Woods region, but should remain minimally impactful. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side today into Monday, as the coldest air mass of this early fall season arrives. Discussion... As an upper level low continues to churn over Ontario, north- northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is expected to begin to build into the region as well. Prior to this, height rises will contribute to another day of breezy winds on Sunday, with gusts generally in the 20-30 kt range out of the north-northwest. As a result of persistent CAA at the surface and aloft, as well as cloud cover attributed to the upper low, high temperatures today will only reach the 30s to low 40s across the region. A few rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out again throughout the day across and downstream of the Lake of the Woods region within the CAA regime. Impacts should remain minimal, however, with only a few hundredths of new QPF anticipated at most. With high pressure building in, winds should begin to lessen moving into Monday with cloud cover becoming less prominent as the upper low gradually translates eastward. The conjunction of diminishing winds and clearing skies should yield ideal radiational cooling conditions moving into Monday morning. A cold start to the work week is on tap as a result with most areas dipping into the teens by Monday morning. Very little reprieve from the cool, below normal temperatures is anticipated on Monday as the surface high pressure becomes more centered over the region. As a result, highs on Monday will struggle to make it out of the 30s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Overall, fairly low impact weather is expected for the long term period. As the stagnant 500mb pattern finally breaks down and the FA is between the departing low and the western ridge, surface high pressure will build down into the FA Tuesday morning. A night of clear skies and light winds means chilly morning lows again. After the cold start Tuesday, there should be plenty of sun and minimal wind, but highs will stay on the colder side. The surface high should drop southward by Wednesday morning, but light winds should allow for another chilly night, especially east of the Red River Valley. The long awaited return to normal highs should occur on Wednesday afternoon, but mainly along and west of the Valley (it will still be a little cool to the east). The WPC 500mb cluster analysis shows pretty good model agreement for days 4 and 5 (Wednesday and Thursday) with some ridging pushing into the FA. There is a better signal for warming in areas along and west of the Valley, with slightly cooler temperatures continuing into Thursday east of the Valley. This is supported by surface winds as well, which look to feature at least a period of west (warming) winds. These periods traditionally favor warmer temperatures along and west of the Valley. Moving into Friday and Saturday, the cluster analysis shows wider solutions, and much more uncertainty. More solutions seem to point to a western trough. For this FA, mild temperatures would continue with no mention of precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Cigs throughout the day will vary as an upper level low continues to churn over Ontario. Lowest cigs, in the MVFR range, are anticipated at BJI and TVF for much of the day as a result. GFK and FAR will be on the edge of this lower cloud deck and may dip into MVFR at times throughout the day as well. Otherwise, winds will be gusty once again out of the north-northwest in the 15-20 kt range, with gusts in the 25-30 kt range possible, especially within the Red River Valley. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...Rick LONG TERM...Godon AVIATION...Rick