408 
FXUS63 KEAX 161110
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 234 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2022

Key Messages: 

- Widespread hard freeze expected Tuesday morning. 

- Dry weather likely through the entire forecast.

Stagnant meridional flow continues to be the predominant upper 
pattern across the northern hemisphere through much of this week.
On the North American scale, a deep trough remains in place over 
the eastern portions of Canada and the US with a strong ridge over
western North America. Strong northwesterly to northerly cyclonic
flow around the eastern Canada/US upper trough, with several 
shortwaves moving through the flow, will allow for at least one 
strong cold front to push through the area. A strong cold front 
will dive south through the area Sunday evening/ Sunday night. 
While highs Sunday will likely warm into the mid and upper 60s 
prior to frontal passage, highs Monday will be 15 to 20 degrees 
cooler. Highs Monday will range from the lower 40s in northeastern
MO to the lower 50s in eastern Kansas. As cold high pressure 
builds southward Monday night through Tuesday and into Wednesday, 
a widespread hard freeze is expected. Temperatures will drop into
the teens and 20s Tuesday morning, with similar or possibly 
colder temperatures Wednesday morning. With that in mind, have 
issued a freeze watch for much of the forecast area. Far northern 
Missouri has already seen temperatures in the mid 20s and 
coordinating with neighbors, have left our northern tier or two of
counties out of this watch given most of that area has already 
seen lows dip into the mid 20s.

The blocking upper pattern begins to break down later in the week 
and the CONUS transitions to more of a split flow regime with more 
zonal flow across the northern half of the country. This will allow 
temperatures to warm back up into the 70s in time for next weekend. 
The only chance for precipitation may come next Sunday into Monday 
when models show a trough moving across the middle of the 
country.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Later 
this morning, diurnal heating may allow for some scattered CU to 
develop; however, those will dissipate with loss of daytime 
heating later this evening with clear skies expected.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for 
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for 
     MOZ012>014-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Klaus