408 FXUS63 KEAX 161110 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 610 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 234 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2022 Key Messages: - Widespread hard freeze expected Tuesday morning. - Dry weather likely through the entire forecast. Stagnant meridional flow continues to be the predominant upper pattern across the northern hemisphere through much of this week. On the North American scale, a deep trough remains in place over the eastern portions of Canada and the US with a strong ridge over western North America. Strong northwesterly to northerly cyclonic flow around the eastern Canada/US upper trough, with several shortwaves moving through the flow, will allow for at least one strong cold front to push through the area. A strong cold front will dive south through the area Sunday evening/ Sunday night. While highs Sunday will likely warm into the mid and upper 60s prior to frontal passage, highs Monday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler. Highs Monday will range from the lower 40s in northeastern MO to the lower 50s in eastern Kansas. As cold high pressure builds southward Monday night through Tuesday and into Wednesday, a widespread hard freeze is expected. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s Tuesday morning, with similar or possibly colder temperatures Wednesday morning. With that in mind, have issued a freeze watch for much of the forecast area. Far northern Missouri has already seen temperatures in the mid 20s and coordinating with neighbors, have left our northern tier or two of counties out of this watch given most of that area has already seen lows dip into the mid 20s. The blocking upper pattern begins to break down later in the week and the CONUS transitions to more of a split flow regime with more zonal flow across the northern half of the country. This will allow temperatures to warm back up into the 70s in time for next weekend. The only chance for precipitation may come next Sunday into Monday when models show a trough moving across the middle of the country. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning) Issued at 608 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Later this morning, diurnal heating may allow for some scattered CU to develop; however, those will dissipate with loss of daytime heating later this evening with clear skies expected. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. MO...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MOZ012>014-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. && $$ Discussion...CDB Aviation...Klaus