608 
FXUS63 KGLD 160945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) 
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Today-tonight...mid and high level cloudiness currently over the 
area early this morning will dissipate/decrease from northeast to 
southwest through the day with a generally clear sky tonight. High 
temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to middle 60s. 
For tonight, the GFS and ECMWF surface features are in general 
agreement with a 1027mb surface high moving into the area from the 
northeast. The GEM model has a 1030mb surface high a little further 
west. The NAM/SREF models are similar t the GFS/ECMWF position wise 
with a 1029mb surface high. Regardless, conditions are ideal for 
excellent radiational cooling with low temperatures ranging from the 
middle to upper 20s across the northeast and eastern portions of the 
forecast area to upper 20s to around 32 degrees elsewhere. For those 
reasons, will be upgrading to a Freeze Warning for the entire area. 

Monday-Monday night...the forecast area is in between a large upper 
level low over the Great Lakes area and an upper level high over 
Idaho. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to 
around 60 across the eastern part of the area to the lower and 
middle 60s across far eastern Colorado. For Monday night, a 1034mb 
surface high builds into the area favoring NBM low temperatures in 
the middle 20s to around 30. There is a possibility of cloud cover 
in the 850-700 and/or 700-500mb layer moving down and across the 
eastern part of the forecast area which would likely impact the low 
temperature forecast (by being not as cold). For now we wont be 
making any changes and will see how our Freeze Warning verifies 
for tonight (Sunday night/Monday morning) before issuing another 
Freeze headline. 

Tuesday-Tuesday night...no significant change at 500mb. Cooler 
temperatures are expected across the eastern 1/3 of the forecast 
area with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Further west across far 
eastern Colorado we're expecting highs in the lower 60s. Low 
temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 20s to middle 30s, 
coldest across the far northeast and eastern zones near a 1030mb 
surface high and very light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) 
Issued at 103 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

The long term period is relatively benign with above average 
temperatures, dry conditions and no concerns for hazards at this 
time. The weekend may bring a pattern change.

The end of the work week is forecasted to have the area under 
northwest flow in the upper levels before a trough builds into the
Western CONUS towards the end of the week. With dry air through 
most of the air column, the area will likely see mostly sunny 
skies and warmer temperatures through the week in the 70's and low
80's.

For the weekend, the dry and warm conditions are forecasted to 
continue into Saturday while lower surface pressure builds into the 
area. The lower surface pressure and associated cold front would 
then move through late in the day as an upper level shortwave swings 
through the area and the trough deepens in the west. This would then 
cool temperatures Sunday and into next week and potentially bring 
some low chances for rain (dry air prior would limit rain chances 
with little moisture advection). There is some uncertainty with the 
timing so Saturday could be a bit cooler or conversely Sunday could 
be warmer than forecasted. While freezing temperatures could be 
possible with the system, the area may see freezing temperatures 
the next few nights which removes the concern for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
northwest wind at taf issuance will increase a bit from 18z-21z
with gusts up to 20kts or so expected with no gusts after 22z.
After 01z light and variable winds are expected. 

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
northwest wind at taf issuance will increase a bit from 18z-22z
with gusts up to 20kts or so expected with no gusts after 23z.
After about 06z light and variable winds are expected. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for 
     COZ090>092.

NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for 
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99