608 FXUS63 KGLD 160945 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 345 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Today-tonight...mid and high level cloudiness currently over the area early this morning will dissipate/decrease from northeast to southwest through the day with a generally clear sky tonight. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to middle 60s. For tonight, the GFS and ECMWF surface features are in general agreement with a 1027mb surface high moving into the area from the northeast. The GEM model has a 1030mb surface high a little further west. The NAM/SREF models are similar t the GFS/ECMWF position wise with a 1029mb surface high. Regardless, conditions are ideal for excellent radiational cooling with low temperatures ranging from the middle to upper 20s across the northeast and eastern portions of the forecast area to upper 20s to around 32 degrees elsewhere. For those reasons, will be upgrading to a Freeze Warning for the entire area. Monday-Monday night...the forecast area is in between a large upper level low over the Great Lakes area and an upper level high over Idaho. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s to around 60 across the eastern part of the area to the lower and middle 60s across far eastern Colorado. For Monday night, a 1034mb surface high builds into the area favoring NBM low temperatures in the middle 20s to around 30. There is a possibility of cloud cover in the 850-700 and/or 700-500mb layer moving down and across the eastern part of the forecast area which would likely impact the low temperature forecast (by being not as cold). For now we wont be making any changes and will see how our Freeze Warning verifies for tonight (Sunday night/Monday morning) before issuing another Freeze headline. Tuesday-Tuesday night...no significant change at 500mb. Cooler temperatures are expected across the eastern 1/3 of the forecast area with highs in the lower to middle 50s. Further west across far eastern Colorado we're expecting highs in the lower 60s. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 20s to middle 30s, coldest across the far northeast and eastern zones near a 1030mb surface high and very light winds. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 The long term period is relatively benign with above average temperatures, dry conditions and no concerns for hazards at this time. The weekend may bring a pattern change. The end of the work week is forecasted to have the area under northwest flow in the upper levels before a trough builds into the Western CONUS towards the end of the week. With dry air through most of the air column, the area will likely see mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures through the week in the 70's and low 80's. For the weekend, the dry and warm conditions are forecasted to continue into Saturday while lower surface pressure builds into the area. The lower surface pressure and associated cold front would then move through late in the day as an upper level shortwave swings through the area and the trough deepens in the west. This would then cool temperatures Sunday and into next week and potentially bring some low chances for rain (dry air prior would limit rain chances with little moisture advection). There is some uncertainty with the timing so Saturday could be a bit cooler or conversely Sunday could be warmer than forecasted. While freezing temperatures could be possible with the system, the area may see freezing temperatures the next few nights which removes the concern for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light northwest wind at taf issuance will increase a bit from 18z-21z with gusts up to 20kts or so expected with no gusts after 22z. After 01z light and variable winds are expected. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light northwest wind at taf issuance will increase a bit from 18z-22z with gusts up to 20kts or so expected with no gusts after 23z. After about 06z light and variable winds are expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...99