996 
FXUS62 KTAE 160909
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
509 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Some changes will start to take place today as the surface flow 
veers to a southerly direction this afternoon with an increase in 
low level moisture. Dewpoints near 70 will likely return to the 
panhandle coast later this afternoon. There may be just enough lift 
and surface convergence to squeeze out a slight chance of a shower 
or thunderstorm near the panhandle coast later this afternoon. Highs 
are expected to be in the 80s areawide this afternoon.

For tonight, low level moisture will continue to increase, 
especially across the western areas. Fog development is expected, 
with the best chance of seeing dense fog across the western areas 
and lesser chances the farther east you go. Overnight lows are 
expected to range from the lower 60s across the eastern portion of 
the area to the mid to upper 60s across the west with increasing 
moisture.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

A deepening trough across eastern CONUS will bring with it a cold 
front on Monday, passing through the region by Tuesday night. Our 
best PoP chances lie along areas near the coast and offshore as that 
is where the best instability is expected to be. Otherwise, this 
front is expected to be mostly a dry front for areas inland. Some 
modest warm air advection ahead of the front on Monday will turn 
into strong cold air advection on Tuesday. Expect daytime highs to 
generally be in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before falling into 
the mid and upper 60s for most of the area on Tuesday. Overnight 
lows are expected to be in the 50s, with low 50s to the northwest 
and upper 50s to the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Post-frontal we'll see temps take a dive as strong CAA moves into 
the region in the cold fronts' wake. High temps struggle to make it 
out of the 60s on Wednesday before rebounding into the 80s by 
Sunday. Similarly, overnight lows potentially dipping into the mid 
to upper 30s for most of the CWA Thursday morning before rebounding 
to around 50 degrees by Sunday. Calm winds and radiational cooling 
peak Thursday morning, making it an anomalously chilly morning. 
Otherwise, sunny and dry conditions are expected to persist into the 
weekend post-frontal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Some 
southerly return flow will begin off the Gulf this afternoon. Enough 
moisture will return at first to support higher-based fair weather 
cumulus. Confidence in fair weather cu is highest further west at 
ECP and DHN, and lowest further east at VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Through tonight, easterly flow is expected before becoming onshore 
and switching to primarily southerly as the cold front approaches 
the region. The cold front will continue to progress eastward on 
Monday, but will not fully pass over until Tuesday. Following 
frontal passage, strong northerly flow will exist across the coastal 
waters, possibly leading to cautionary and borderline advisory 
conditions through Wednesday night. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Warm and mostly dry weather will continue this afternoon with min RH 
values ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s mainly north of I-10. 
Light winds will also maintain low dispersions across the southeast 
big bend.

Noticeable moisture recovery occurs on Monday as flow turns 
southwesterly off the Gulf ahead of a cold front. Low-end rain 
chances accompany the front through Monday night, but are mainly 
confined to the coast. Otherwise, increased sky cover should at 
least provide shading of fuels in addition to lower temperatures.

After the frontal passage on Tuesday, breezy north flow ushers in a 
very dry airmass that prompts min RH to plummet into the mid 20s 
primarily north of the FL border. Pockets of high dispersions are 
also possible. These conditions introduce elevated fire danger.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022

There are currently no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  63  86  59 /   0   0  30  20 
Panama City   84  68  83  57 /  20  10  30  20 
Dothan        87  63  84  51 /   0   0  20  10 
Albany        86  62  84  52 /   0   0  20  10 
Valdosta      87  61  86  57 /   0   0  30  20 
Cross City    88  64  85  63 /   0  10  40  30 
Apalachicola  82  68  82  61 /  10  10  30  20 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver