996 FXUS62 KTAE 160909 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 509 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Some changes will start to take place today as the surface flow veers to a southerly direction this afternoon with an increase in low level moisture. Dewpoints near 70 will likely return to the panhandle coast later this afternoon. There may be just enough lift and surface convergence to squeeze out a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm near the panhandle coast later this afternoon. Highs are expected to be in the 80s areawide this afternoon. For tonight, low level moisture will continue to increase, especially across the western areas. Fog development is expected, with the best chance of seeing dense fog across the western areas and lesser chances the farther east you go. Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower 60s across the eastern portion of the area to the mid to upper 60s across the west with increasing moisture. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A deepening trough across eastern CONUS will bring with it a cold front on Monday, passing through the region by Tuesday night. Our best PoP chances lie along areas near the coast and offshore as that is where the best instability is expected to be. Otherwise, this front is expected to be mostly a dry front for areas inland. Some modest warm air advection ahead of the front on Monday will turn into strong cold air advection on Tuesday. Expect daytime highs to generally be in the mid to upper 80s on Monday before falling into the mid and upper 60s for most of the area on Tuesday. Overnight lows are expected to be in the 50s, with low 50s to the northwest and upper 50s to the southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Post-frontal we'll see temps take a dive as strong CAA moves into the region in the cold fronts' wake. High temps struggle to make it out of the 60s on Wednesday before rebounding into the 80s by Sunday. Similarly, overnight lows potentially dipping into the mid to upper 30s for most of the CWA Thursday morning before rebounding to around 50 degrees by Sunday. Calm winds and radiational cooling peak Thursday morning, making it an anomalously chilly morning. Otherwise, sunny and dry conditions are expected to persist into the weekend post-frontal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Some southerly return flow will begin off the Gulf this afternoon. Enough moisture will return at first to support higher-based fair weather cumulus. Confidence in fair weather cu is highest further west at ECP and DHN, and lowest further east at VLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Through tonight, easterly flow is expected before becoming onshore and switching to primarily southerly as the cold front approaches the region. The cold front will continue to progress eastward on Monday, but will not fully pass over until Tuesday. Following frontal passage, strong northerly flow will exist across the coastal waters, possibly leading to cautionary and borderline advisory conditions through Wednesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Warm and mostly dry weather will continue this afternoon with min RH values ranging from the upper 20s to low 30s mainly north of I-10. Light winds will also maintain low dispersions across the southeast big bend. Noticeable moisture recovery occurs on Monday as flow turns southwesterly off the Gulf ahead of a cold front. Low-end rain chances accompany the front through Monday night, but are mainly confined to the coast. Otherwise, increased sky cover should at least provide shading of fuels in addition to lower temperatures. After the frontal passage on Tuesday, breezy north flow ushers in a very dry airmass that prompts min RH to plummet into the mid 20s primarily north of the FL border. Pockets of high dispersions are also possible. These conditions introduce elevated fire danger. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 506 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2022 There are currently no flooding concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 63 86 59 / 0 0 30 20 Panama City 84 68 83 57 / 20 10 30 20 Dothan 87 63 84 51 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 86 62 84 52 / 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 87 61 86 57 / 0 0 30 20 Cross City 88 64 85 63 / 0 10 40 30 Apalachicola 82 68 82 61 / 10 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Oliver