466 
FXUS64 KLZK 160826
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
326 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night )
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

An upper trough extends through the Great Lakes this morning with a 
strong upper ridge building over the west. Northwest flow aloft will 
continue over Arkansas today and Monday. An upper low develops over 
the Great Lakes early Monday and then slowly moves east. 

A cold front continues in northern Arkansas this morning. Southerly 
surface flow is keeping dew points in the 50s and 60s. Showers and 
thunderstorms will move south today with the front. Showers and 
thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon...tapering off in 
the south by evening. Widespread severe thunderstorms are not 
expected. Cooler temperatures are expected today and tonight, but 
much colder air is expected Monday night. Freezing temperatures are 
expected in the north Monday night into Tuesday morning and a Freeze 
Watch has been issued for this area. This will be the first freeze 
of the season for northern Arkansas. 

Highs today will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s and in the upper 
50s to lower 70s Monday. Lows tonight will be around 40 north to the 
mid 50s south and then colder and drier air will bring lows in the 
upper 20s to lower 40s Monday night. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...Increasing confidence on an area-wide freeze by mid-week...

The long-term PD looks to start with an initial freeze across 
portions of Nrn AR, Tues morning, under the influence of an 
encroaching continental Canadian airmass. Medium range global 
ensemble guidance continues to advertise a highly perturbed upper-
lvl flow pattern, and a highly anomalous longwave trof...(approx 3-4 
negative standard deviations of H500 heights) parked over the Ern 
half of the CONUS. This highly anomalous troughing is largely due in 
part to amplified and...you guessed it...anomalous ridging over the 
PAC-N/W and portions of Wrn Canada and Alaska. As such, a strong 
meridional component of upper-lvl Nrly flow wl be positioned over 
the Cntrl US to begin the work week...a very common and basically, 
required pattern for cold Canadian continental airmass intrusions 
into the Cntrl and Srn US. 

Following a more local freeze over Nrn AR on Tues morning, 
persistent CAA, and significant dry air advection through the day wl 
setup the ingredients for a more widespread freeze event by Wed 
morning as strong sfc high pressure continues to dip S/wrd into the 
Srn/Cntrl US.  

Sfc high pressure centered over the OK/AR/MO border vcty, clearing 
skies, calming winds, and significantly drier air...characterized by 
sfc Td's in the upper teens to low 20s...should allow for temps to 
plummet, resulting in most locations seeing a freeze overnight Tues 
and into Wed morning. Portions of Nrn and N/Wrn AR could see temps 
as low as the mid to upper 20s, w/ Cntrl and Srn AR hovering around 
the freezing mark. 

Short-term relief wl be seen across Wrn and N/Wrn AR following 
recent rainfall, however gusty Nrly winds and extremely low 
afternoon RH values on Tues and Wed wl lkly yield elevated fire 
danger again.

By Thurs, and thru the remainder of the PD, the prominent upper-lvl 
trof that had been parked over the region should begin to pivot and 
translate N/Ewrd, w/ sfc high pressure shifting E/wrd towards the 
Atlantic Coast. This wl allow for Srly winds to return to the FA, 
and a moderating trend towards more normal diurnal highs and lows is 
expected. In the wake of the strong Canadian cold frnt, this wl 
hinder any chcs for rain thru the remainder of the long term PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

A cold front continues over the area with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The front will not move much overnight but will
move southeast Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Sunday before ending and moving out of the area.
VFR and MVFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  45  63  32 /  70   0   0   0 
Camden AR         74  54  69  39 /  50  20  10   0 
Harrison AR       72  40  58  29 /  30   0   0   0 
Hot Springs AR    73  51  67  38 /  80  10  10   0 
Little Rock   AR  74  52  68  38 /  80  10   0   0 
Monticello AR     79  56  69  39 /  30  20  10   0 
Mount Ida AR      73  48  67  35 /  90  10  10   0 
Mountain Home AR  73  41  58  30 /  40   0   0   0 
Newport AR        71  46  60  33 /  80   0   0   0 
Pine Bluff AR     76  53  68  38 /  50  20  10   0 
Russellville AR   72  46  66  35 /  70   0   0   0 
Searcy AR         73  47  65  33 /  90   0   0   0 
Stuttgart AR      73  51  65  37 /  70  10   0   0 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for 
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...51