466 FXUS64 KLZK 160826 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 326 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night ) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 An upper trough extends through the Great Lakes this morning with a strong upper ridge building over the west. Northwest flow aloft will continue over Arkansas today and Monday. An upper low develops over the Great Lakes early Monday and then slowly moves east. A cold front continues in northern Arkansas this morning. Southerly surface flow is keeping dew points in the 50s and 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will move south today with the front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon...tapering off in the south by evening. Widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected. Cooler temperatures are expected today and tonight, but much colder air is expected Monday night. Freezing temperatures are expected in the north Monday night into Tuesday morning and a Freeze Watch has been issued for this area. This will be the first freeze of the season for northern Arkansas. Highs today will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s and in the upper 50s to lower 70s Monday. Lows tonight will be around 40 north to the mid 50s south and then colder and drier air will bring lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 ...Increasing confidence on an area-wide freeze by mid-week... The long-term PD looks to start with an initial freeze across portions of Nrn AR, Tues morning, under the influence of an encroaching continental Canadian airmass. Medium range global ensemble guidance continues to advertise a highly perturbed upper- lvl flow pattern, and a highly anomalous longwave trof...(approx 3-4 negative standard deviations of H500 heights) parked over the Ern half of the CONUS. This highly anomalous troughing is largely due in part to amplified and...you guessed it...anomalous ridging over the PAC-N/W and portions of Wrn Canada and Alaska. As such, a strong meridional component of upper-lvl Nrly flow wl be positioned over the Cntrl US to begin the work week...a very common and basically, required pattern for cold Canadian continental airmass intrusions into the Cntrl and Srn US. Following a more local freeze over Nrn AR on Tues morning, persistent CAA, and significant dry air advection through the day wl setup the ingredients for a more widespread freeze event by Wed morning as strong sfc high pressure continues to dip S/wrd into the Srn/Cntrl US. Sfc high pressure centered over the OK/AR/MO border vcty, clearing skies, calming winds, and significantly drier air...characterized by sfc Td's in the upper teens to low 20s...should allow for temps to plummet, resulting in most locations seeing a freeze overnight Tues and into Wed morning. Portions of Nrn and N/Wrn AR could see temps as low as the mid to upper 20s, w/ Cntrl and Srn AR hovering around the freezing mark. Short-term relief wl be seen across Wrn and N/Wrn AR following recent rainfall, however gusty Nrly winds and extremely low afternoon RH values on Tues and Wed wl lkly yield elevated fire danger again. By Thurs, and thru the remainder of the PD, the prominent upper-lvl trof that had been parked over the region should begin to pivot and translate N/Ewrd, w/ sfc high pressure shifting E/wrd towards the Atlantic Coast. This wl allow for Srly winds to return to the FA, and a moderating trend towards more normal diurnal highs and lows is expected. In the wake of the strong Canadian cold frnt, this wl hinder any chcs for rain thru the remainder of the long term PD. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 A cold front continues over the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will not move much overnight but will move southeast Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday before ending and moving out of the area. VFR and MVFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 45 63 32 / 70 0 0 0 Camden AR 74 54 69 39 / 50 20 10 0 Harrison AR 72 40 58 29 / 30 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 73 51 67 38 / 80 10 10 0 Little Rock AR 74 52 68 38 / 80 10 0 0 Monticello AR 79 56 69 39 / 30 20 10 0 Mount Ida AR 73 48 67 35 / 90 10 10 0 Mountain Home AR 73 41 58 30 / 40 0 0 0 Newport AR 71 46 60 33 / 80 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 76 53 68 38 / 50 20 10 0 Russellville AR 72 46 66 35 / 70 0 0 0 Searcy AR 73 47 65 33 / 90 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 73 51 65 37 / 70 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...51