685 
FXUS66 KMFR 160422
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
922 PM PDT Sat Oct 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Today's maximum temperature of 91F at the Medford ASOS was 1
degree short of the record of 92F for October 15th, which was set
in 2015. It was also only the second time we've reached or 
exceeded 90F at this location this far into Autumn since records 
began in 1911. 

A record high of 85 was tied at Mount Shasta City, CA today, 
previously set in 1961 and 2015. Montague, CA also tied a record 
last set in 2015 with 89F today.

Meanwhile, reduced air quality in the Unhealthy for Sensitive
Groups category exists across central Douglas County in and 
around Roseburg this evening, courtesy of the Cedar Creek 
wildfire. Moderate AQI exists in the Grants Pass area due to, 
primarily, the same fire.

Maximum temperatures Sunday afternoon are expected to be 3 to 7
degrees Fahrenheit cooler than they were today from the Cascades
westward as the oppressive high pressure ridging that has been
bearing down on the forecast area gets bumped northeastward by a
trough of low pressure moving closer to the coast from the
southwest in the Eastern Pacific. The extremely dry air mass that
has been over the west side the last few days will also become
less dry. This slight reprieve from the Cascades westward will
continue into Monday and affect the east side Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday through Thursday temperatures and dryness are likely to
scale back up before cooler conditions begin of Friday the 21st and
some precipitation moves in Saturday the 22nd through Tuesday the
25th. ~BTL


&&

.AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...LIFR/IFR stratus is present from the near 
shore waters into the coast and Coquille Valley. LIFR/IFR will 
thicken again and spread farther into the coastal valleys 
overnight into Sunday morning. 

Also, smoke and haze from the Cedar Creek Fire is reducing 
visibility to MVFR across Douglas County, including Roseburg. 

Otherwise, VFR and light winds will persist through Sunday.
-DW/BPN

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Saturday 15 October 2022...Moderate 
southerly winds will increase tonight into Sunday with an area of 
low pressure far offshore. This will produce steep, short period 
seas early Sunday morning into Sunday evening. Conditions then 
improve into Monday. Winds are expected to become northerly Tuesday 
then persist through mid-week with steep to very steep seas 
possible. -DW/BPN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT 15 October 2022...Dry, easterly 
flow continues across the region this afternoon with winds gusting 
in the 15 to 20 mph range and up to 30 mph at the more exposed 
locations (like Slater Butte). East winds will persist tonight, 
strongest along the Cascades and Siskiyous. Easterly flow will bring 
another night of poor recoveries, and this will result in critical 
fire weather conditions in portions of Fire Weather Zones 617, 623, 
and 621. Given the recent weeks of dry and warm weather, fuels in 
these zones are again receptive to fire, and this warrants a Red 
Flag Warning for these areas tonight. Easterly flow continues into 
Monday night, but will be considerably weaker and recoveries will be 
improved. 

Otherwise, late summer like conditions will continue through this 
week with strong valley/ridge inversions at night and unseasonably 
warm and dry afternoons. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler 
this week as high pressure finally shifts eastward, but will remain 
well above normal away from the coast. Confidence is increasing in a 
significant pattern change by next weekend with temperatures cooling 
to seasonal normals. Wetting rains will be possible across portions 
of the area this weekend, but exactly where and how much is 
uncertain at this point. While confidence is low in the details, 
confidence is higher that conditions will finally resemble those 
more typical for this time of year. /BR-y


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 232 PM PDT Sat Oct 15 2022/ 

SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the region through most 
of next week with the weather not changing much from day to day. 
Expect cool mornings and warm afternoons for interior locations. Low 
clouds and patchy to areas of fog are likely in similar locations 
through Sunday. 

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows marine stratus over 
the entire marine waters, at the coast and into portions of the 
interior coastal valleys. The marine stratus in the interior should 
peel back towards the coast late this afternoon, but this will only 
be temporary as it will fill back in early this evening through 
tonight. The inland penetration of the marine stratus overnight 
tonight should be similar to what we saw early this morning. 

Elsewhere, skies will remain clear tonight through Sunday evening, 
with haze mainly west of the Cascades and patchy to areas of smoke 
and haze from about the Umpqua Divide north. 

The weather is not expected to vary much from day to day through 
most of next week. Thus, we can expect much of the same with cool 
nights and mild to warm afternoons for interior locations. While 
afternoon temperatures will trend down slightly next week, they are 
still expected to remain above normal. 

An upper trough will move towards the area later Sunday morning and 
Sunday afternoon. However, we have a strong ridge centered over the 
area, and what typically happens is these upper trough will run into 
the upper ridge and weaken considerably, which is what the models 
are suggesting. We'll remain dry, although the marine layer could 
get compressed enough where patchy drizzle could develop over the 
marine waters, coast and possibly into the interior coastal valleys 
late Sunday night into Monday morning. 

Other than the patchy drizzle, it will remain dry through most of 
next week. There's increasing evidence among the operational models 
and ensembles that the pattern will start to change by next Friday, 
bringing cooler temperatures and an increasing chance of 
precipitation by Friday night. The operational models are bullish 
with the amount of precipitation Friday night into Saturday morning, 
with most of the precipitation centered along the Cascades and 
coastal mountains in southwest Oregon. The ensemble members are also 
in similar agreement with the operational models. 

How long will the cooler and wetter pattern remain? The consensus is 
it could last into Wednesday October 26, possibly beyond. However 
the GFS ensemble suggest upper ridging could build back into the 
area after the 26th of October. -Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Sunday for 
     ORZ617-621-623.

CA...Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Sunday for 
     CAZ281.

Pacific Coastal Waters...
- Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350- 
  356-370-376.

&&

$$

BTL/BPN/DW