685 FXUS66 KMFR 160422 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 922 PM PDT Sat Oct 15 2022 .DISCUSSION... Today's maximum temperature of 91F at the Medford ASOS was 1 degree short of the record of 92F for October 15th, which was set in 2015. It was also only the second time we've reached or exceeded 90F at this location this far into Autumn since records began in 1911. A record high of 85 was tied at Mount Shasta City, CA today, previously set in 1961 and 2015. Montague, CA also tied a record last set in 2015 with 89F today. Meanwhile, reduced air quality in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups category exists across central Douglas County in and around Roseburg this evening, courtesy of the Cedar Creek wildfire. Moderate AQI exists in the Grants Pass area due to, primarily, the same fire. Maximum temperatures Sunday afternoon are expected to be 3 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than they were today from the Cascades westward as the oppressive high pressure ridging that has been bearing down on the forecast area gets bumped northeastward by a trough of low pressure moving closer to the coast from the southwest in the Eastern Pacific. The extremely dry air mass that has been over the west side the last few days will also become less dry. This slight reprieve from the Cascades westward will continue into Monday and affect the east side Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday through Thursday temperatures and dryness are likely to scale back up before cooler conditions begin of Friday the 21st and some precipitation moves in Saturday the 22nd through Tuesday the 25th. ~BTL && .AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...LIFR/IFR stratus is present from the near shore waters into the coast and Coquille Valley. LIFR/IFR will thicken again and spread farther into the coastal valleys overnight into Sunday morning. Also, smoke and haze from the Cedar Creek Fire is reducing visibility to MVFR across Douglas County, including Roseburg. Otherwise, VFR and light winds will persist through Sunday. -DW/BPN && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM Saturday 15 October 2022...Moderate southerly winds will increase tonight into Sunday with an area of low pressure far offshore. This will produce steep, short period seas early Sunday morning into Sunday evening. Conditions then improve into Monday. Winds are expected to become northerly Tuesday then persist through mid-week with steep to very steep seas possible. -DW/BPN && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT 15 October 2022...Dry, easterly flow continues across the region this afternoon with winds gusting in the 15 to 20 mph range and up to 30 mph at the more exposed locations (like Slater Butte). East winds will persist tonight, strongest along the Cascades and Siskiyous. Easterly flow will bring another night of poor recoveries, and this will result in critical fire weather conditions in portions of Fire Weather Zones 617, 623, and 621. Given the recent weeks of dry and warm weather, fuels in these zones are again receptive to fire, and this warrants a Red Flag Warning for these areas tonight. Easterly flow continues into Monday night, but will be considerably weaker and recoveries will be improved. Otherwise, late summer like conditions will continue through this week with strong valley/ridge inversions at night and unseasonably warm and dry afternoons. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler this week as high pressure finally shifts eastward, but will remain well above normal away from the coast. Confidence is increasing in a significant pattern change by next weekend with temperatures cooling to seasonal normals. Wetting rains will be possible across portions of the area this weekend, but exactly where and how much is uncertain at this point. While confidence is low in the details, confidence is higher that conditions will finally resemble those more typical for this time of year. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 232 PM PDT Sat Oct 15 2022/ SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the region through most of next week with the weather not changing much from day to day. Expect cool mornings and warm afternoons for interior locations. Low clouds and patchy to areas of fog are likely in similar locations through Sunday. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows marine stratus over the entire marine waters, at the coast and into portions of the interior coastal valleys. The marine stratus in the interior should peel back towards the coast late this afternoon, but this will only be temporary as it will fill back in early this evening through tonight. The inland penetration of the marine stratus overnight tonight should be similar to what we saw early this morning. Elsewhere, skies will remain clear tonight through Sunday evening, with haze mainly west of the Cascades and patchy to areas of smoke and haze from about the Umpqua Divide north. The weather is not expected to vary much from day to day through most of next week. Thus, we can expect much of the same with cool nights and mild to warm afternoons for interior locations. While afternoon temperatures will trend down slightly next week, they are still expected to remain above normal. An upper trough will move towards the area later Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. However, we have a strong ridge centered over the area, and what typically happens is these upper trough will run into the upper ridge and weaken considerably, which is what the models are suggesting. We'll remain dry, although the marine layer could get compressed enough where patchy drizzle could develop over the marine waters, coast and possibly into the interior coastal valleys late Sunday night into Monday morning. Other than the patchy drizzle, it will remain dry through most of next week. There's increasing evidence among the operational models and ensembles that the pattern will start to change by next Friday, bringing cooler temperatures and an increasing chance of precipitation by Friday night. The operational models are bullish with the amount of precipitation Friday night into Saturday morning, with most of the precipitation centered along the Cascades and coastal mountains in southwest Oregon. The ensemble members are also in similar agreement with the operational models. How long will the cooler and wetter pattern remain? The consensus is it could last into Wednesday October 26, possibly beyond. However the GFS ensemble suggest upper ridging could build back into the area after the 26th of October. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ617-621-623. CA...Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ281. Pacific Coastal Waters... - Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350- 356-370-376. && $$ BTL/BPN/DW