500 
FXUS63 KMPX 151732 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Southwest MN will see a brief period of elevated to significant
  fire weather conditions this afternoon.

- A cold snap is expected Sunday night into Tuesday before
  temperatures moderate towards the end of the week.

Mostly dry weather is expected today, though an isolated rain/snow 
shower may occur over Rusk county, WI near midday. Here, slightly 
better moisture should exist underneath the cyclonic flow from the 
broad upper-level trough over the Great Lakes region. Temperatures 
will rebound as a lobe of an 850 mb thermal ridge quickly passes 
through ahead of another cold front. Most of the CWA will have highs 
in the 50s but a few low 60s are possible in southwest MN. The 
biggest concern today will be a brief period of elevated to 
significant fire weather conditions across southwest MN. Decreased 
moisture accompanying the warmer temperatures will create a 
transient area of very low RH (percentages in the low 20s to even 
mid teens) ahead of the front. Combined with northwesterly winds 
reaching or exceeding 25 knot gusts, this will create a very 
hazardous environment for fires. Have issued an SPS for critical 
fire weather conditions across southwestern MN that will be valid 
until the cold front passes through Saturday evening.

Lows Saturday night will cool into the mid 30s as we begin our 
expected early week cold snap. A strong, northerly jetstreak and 
embedded wave within the larger Great Lakes trough will advect cold 
air from central Canada into the Upper Midwest. Highs Sunday will 
only reach the lower to mid 40s and continued breezy northwesterly 
winds will make for unpleasant conditions for those outside. Some 
isolated rain/snow showers may again occur across extreme eastern MN 
and west-central WI underneath the cyclonic flow. Temperatures will 
continue to tank over the next 36 hours: Sunday night lows in the 
20s, Monday highs struggling to reach 40, and Monday night lows 
bottoming out in the upper teens to lower 20s. (Forecast lows Monday 
night are currently 15-20 degrees below normal!)

Long-range guidance suggests that temperatures will slowly improve 
as we head towards the end the work week due to the Great Lakes 
trough slowly filling and meandering east. Meanwhile, strong thermal 
ridging over the Intermountain Rockies will try to slide east and 
"push out" the remaining cold air over the Upper Midwest. How 
quickly this occurs is uncertain, but it appears that warmer weather 
is on the horizon towards the end of next week. Long-range guidance 
does favor a transition to ridging and eventual zonal flow by next 
weekend. However, the one thing that isn't favored in the long-
range? Precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Mid level clouds will increase from north to south this afternoon.
Bases could drop to MVFR tonight or early Sunday along and north of
I-94. Wind will veer west northwest today, then increase Sunday. 

KMSP...No additional concerns. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind NNW 15G25 kts. 
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Borghoff